GS Paper II — Governance, Constitution, Social Justice & IR

#Health

• Avg life expectancy — 69
• IMR — 32
• NMR — 24
• U5MR — 39 [Under-5 Mortality Rate]
• MMR — 122 per 1L [per 1 lakh live births]
• TFR — 2.3 (National Health Profile 2019)
  • (2yr ↑ Raise GDP per capita by 4%)
• Immunisation coverage — 59% (0–5 children)
• Doctor : population — 1 : 1456 (LESA [latest estimate])
• Nurse — 1 : 538 (WHO → 1 : 1000)
• 8mn children missed vaccine in I [India] during covid — WHO
• 1.2% of GDP on health; 60% OoPE [Out-of-Pocket Expenditure] (Canada — 8%; 3.5 by 2025)
• 55 mn I [Indians] pushed to poverty every yr coz health exp. (>$34 deaths in I = NCDs [Non-Communicable Diseases] 2017)

• 60% deaths in I = NCDs

• 4/4 I [every 4th Indian] dying from NCD before reaching 70
• State of Global Air 2019 — every 3rd child in Delhi has impaired lungs; ↓ reduced avg lifespan by a few years (in 2021)
• Global Hunger Index — 94/107; 3rd most obese nation
• Diabetes cost of ₹ SDG 3
• Promotive, Preventive, Palliative, Curative, Rehabilitative healthcare
• Global Nutrition Report — Cse no. of stunted & waste children in India

#Education

• Literacy — 74%; (M — 85%; F — 64%)
• GER of girls > boys at all levels
• NSSO — >3cr [3 crore] out-of-school children
• Shortfall of 91 [lakh] teachers in govt elementary school (2016)
• <51% receive vocational training; 96% in S Korea
  • Why?
    • Poor perception
    • Restricted focus
    • Absence of well-defined pathways to continue with chosen vocation in HE [Higher Education]
    • No vertical mobility
• 4.4% currently — exp on edu.
• R&D as % of GDP — 0.7%; Israel — 4.3%
• Low GER in HE — 26% [approx]
• Only 3 institutes in Top 200 in QS Global Ranking 2021
• Only 91 colleges — A grade by NAAC; 1.47% of GDP on HE
• ASER survey:
  • Std VIII → 85% lack basic reading skills; 50% lack numeracy skills
• PM e-VIDYA
• Samagra Shiksha, DHRUV, NISHTHA
• e-Pathshala, UDISE, AIM, IoE, SWAYAM
• 60% PHCs → 1 doc only
• NMn — ₹1/day is spent on every Indian on healthcare

#Education — Dimensions (FACE model)

• F — Flexible learning / Flip class
• A — At your own pace
• M — Mentorship
• E — Experimental learning

#Pedagogy (PLACE model)

• P — Pedagogy
• L — Language
• A — Adult edu.
• C — Curriculum
• E — E-learning
• D — Dropouts

#UNVERSE framework

• U — Understand & enable RTE
• N — Networked edu. (multi-stakeholders)
• V — ICT
• E — Vocational training
• R — Enhance Teacher Quality
• S — Revamp govt mech.
• S — Skill-oriented edu
• E — Access to funds
• L — Learning outcomes

#Key issues

• "Degree shop" / Degree weep — no adequate way to get a job; A great social leveller
• Unnayana Banka, Bihar — e-Taim, Bihar — video recorded lectures of best teachers
• RTE → RT learning [Right to Education → Right to Learning]
• Quantity W/O Quality syndrome
• Chalk & Talk → Digital learning
• Light but tight regulation
• US — skill, scale, speed, std
• Only building → Building Ches
• PRATHAM → Multi-level learning; focus on teaching at right level at right grade
• CAG 2017 — only 8% comply w. RTE

#Poverty

#MPI 2020 — 68/107

• 270 mn people out of poverty in btw 2005–06 and 2015–16
• Incidence of MPI almost halved in I, from 55% to 28% in just 10 years
• Tendulkar Cmtee — 28.1%
  • Rural — 26%
  • Urban — 14%
• Oxfam — 1% richest hold 3/4th of net wealth
• Total wealth of all 1 billionaires > full year budget of I [India]
• Gini coeff = 0.35
• WEF (Social Mobility Re.20) — I born in low-income family would take 7 gens to approach country's mean income
• % overall poverty rose till ↑ to 46% (higher than pre-2014 levels) due to covid-19
• Covid = 100mn I [Indian] women in extreme poverty by 2021 (UN Women)
• Kerala — 4% people are poor; Bihar — 52%; Guj — 8%
• Men own 50% more health than women
• SDG 1 — No poverty
• Poverty is not merely lowness of income but deprivation of basic capabilities
  • Amartya Sen
• Not just absence of income but absence of value/hope/learness [sic]

#Urbanisation of Poverty

• Rural India causes:
  • Lack of opportunity / skills
  • Shortage of — Education, Health & Sanitation
  • Non-lucrative agri [agriculture]
  • ⇒ Migration
• Urban India causes:
  • Informal jobs
  • Domestic help / labourers
  • Lack of Housing ⇒ Slums
  • Higher cost of living in urban areas
  • ⇒ Trap of Poverty

#Tackling Urban Poverty

• RURAL SIDE (left):
  • Rurbanisation of India
  • Investment in basic services
  • Research & training in agri
  • Skill development
  • Agriculture diversification
• URBAN SIDE (right):
  • Developmental planning
  • Rehabilitation (JAGA [Odisha], [Rajiv Awas Yojana])
  • Slum upgradation
  • Land rights
  • Skill training
  • Self-employment + guaranteed cost (DAY-NULM); MGNREGS
  • [illegible — housing/building]

#Poverty — Discrimination — Social Exclusion Cycle

• Poverty ↔ Discrimination ↔ Social Exclusion
• Restricted access to basic services (feedback loop)
• [Boxed note, right side:] (All poverty & exclusion related — not all poverty is due to discrimination)

#Poverty Trap — Growth & Development Cycle

• GROWTH side (left):
  • Low income → Low savings → Low growth → Low eco growth → Low saving → Low growth [reinforcing loop]
• DEVELOPMENT side (right):
  • Low income → Low level of health & edu → Low human capital → Low productivity → Poverty Trap
• Low Income = central node connecting both cycles
• Poverty Trap label at bottom centre

#Women

• % Is [India's] Gender Gap — women paid 34% less than men (WEF)
• 62% women in agri; only 18% in services
• NCRB — avg 88 rape cases daily; 46mn missing women due to sex selection
• 14% rep in LS [Lok Sabha] even when 50% voters are women
• iNASSCOM — 9% startup founders are women
• Only 29% women internet users in I → For NCW [National Commission for Women] "We Think Digital", DigiMoms (PPP)
• Menstrual leave — Bihar, gone; Zomato
• "Empowering children/women/jobs, Transforming India"
• Ethiopia — Gender-balanced cabinet (50% women)

#Key data points (right column, page 4)

• 8.6% or 104mn elderly in I [India] (Census)
• 2.1% or 12 crore disabled people
• Elderly sex ratio — 1033 (2011)
• 4.88L Transgenders
  • SC — 16.21%
  • ST — 8.6%

#Global Carbon Budget 2019

• India's per-capita CO₂ emission is below world avg — 4.3t
• Lot of pop but 7% of CO₂ emissions
• 2% of global SO₂ emi
• 201 waste recycled (Global e-waste Monitor)
• I [India] 3rd largest waste gen [generator] in W [World]
• Ganga — total discharge/day — 1200 mld; treatment capacity — 40,000 mld; operational — 1000 mld
• CAG — 20% of allocated fund uses Namami Gange
• NASA — Gini table ↓ 0.3m every 4yr [groundwater declining]
• Global Air Report 2019 — Air pollution is 2nd highest cause of death in I [India]
• $150bn or 5.4% GDP loss
• WHO — 2nd rank — 1.24 mn deaths annually

#HEALTH (detailed)

#Ayush

Benefits — address gap in health services

• Low-cost HS in far-flung areas
• Lifestyle diseases
• Tobacco & drug abuse
• No side effects — natural treatment
• Best care for elderly
• (Medical pluralism)

Challenges — quality std

• No MRs due to better emp [employment opportunities elsewhere]
• Unutilised infra

Suggestions — R&D

• Cross-disciplinary learning
• AYUSH gram — herbal gardens + yoga camps by PRIs [Panchayati Raj Institutions]
• ICT
• Mainstream Ayush mission into NHM

#General Facts

• Health exp — 1.6% of GDP in 2019–20
• OoPE — 58.7% in 2016–17 (UN Data)

• 97% children at least 1 vaccine — mostly BCG
• Institutional delivery:
  • 90% in rural
  • 96% in urban

#Doctor–Population ratio

• 1 : 1456 (WHO = 1:1000); vs 1:20 in some nations
• HDR 2020 — 8.5 beds per 10,000 people
• Acc to NHP 2017 — [24%] pop covered by H insurance (corrected: 2014–2017)
• Bandhu Mukti Morcha case — RI [Right to] Health WA 21

#3 General Failures by Amartya Sen

1. Neglect of primary healthcare
2. Hasty & premature reliance on private
3. Deficiency of informed public discussion on health

#Universal Health Coverage (UHC)

• Three pillars of UHC (overlapping circles, intersection = UHC):
  • Equity in access (top circle)
  • Protection against financial risks (bottom-left circle)
  • Quality of services (bottom-right circle)
• NHP 2017 — 6.3 mn people are pushed into poverty every year due to healthcare costs

#Funding Models for UHC

#Mental Health

• Mental Healthcare Act 2017 defines mental illness to mean a disorder of thinking, mood, perception, memory or orientation
• Nat'l MH Survey 2015–16 — 13% of pop suffer from major mental disorders; 43% elderly

#Causes

1. Modern & urban [lifestyle]
2. Gender discrimination
3. Media influence ↑ cybercrime
4. Genetic & hormonal factors
5. Age related — [illegible]
6. [illegible]

#Implications

1. Psycho-social
   • Substance abuse
   • Violence & distraction
   • Suicidal tendency
2. Economic
   • Health costs in short
   • ↓ prod [productivity] & income — long term
3. Govt disease burden

#Efforts by Govt

Taken:

1. NMHP, 2014 [National Mental Health Policy]
2. MHA, 2017 [Mental Healthcare Act]
3. NHM
4. PM-Ayushman Bharat

Needed:

• Integrated approach
• Societal
• Awareness
• US [USA] M/o [Ministry of] loneliness — strategy tested with MH workplace

#Ayushman Bharat — Continuum of Care

• Pyramid (bottom to top):
  • Primary — Existing RMNCHA [Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child, Adolescent Health]; Unmeet needs of primary → Health & Wellness Centre
  • Secondary → PM-JAY
  • Tertiary → PM-JAY
• PM-JAY covers secondary + tertiary
• Health & Wellness Centres cover primary + unmeet primary needs

#Tech in Health

1. Tech-enabled Remote Health Services (Telemedicine)
2. Quality H/care — NHA [National Health Authority] H. Stack
3. GRMI & feedback — Mera Aspataal
4. Health Awareness — NH Portal, Kilkari app
5. Surveillance — IDSP, Mother & Child Tracking System, NIKSHAY
6. Capacity building of health workers — Mobile Academy for ASHA, LaQshay etc.
7. Pandemic control — Aarogya Setu, CORONTINE
8. Health MIS — policy making
9. Hospital Mgmt.

#NDHM [National Digital Health Mission] Components

• Central node: NDHM components
• Spokes:
  • Telemedicine
  • Digi Doctor
  • Health facility Registry
  • Personal H [Health] Records
  • E-pharmacy
  • Health ID

#Digital India GS-III

#IAMAI — Digital in India Report 19

• Internet (I) penetration:
  • All India — 40%
  • Urban — 64%
  • Rural — 32%
  • 250mn 305mn urban users; 227mn rural users
  • Males — 65%; Female — 35%
• Lot of ↑ in broadband penetration leads to 14% growth in GDP

#Digital Quality of Life Index 2020

• Overall — 57/85

• Afford² — 9th (outperforms US, UK, China)

• Quality — 73th (slow, unstable)

• Infra — 79th (below SL [Sri Lanka], Guatemala)

• Electronic security — 57th

• E-govt — 15th

• 2nd largest Internet subscriber — mobile

• India can create upto $1 trillion of economic value from digital economy in 2025 (currently $200bn → 8% of GVA in 2017–18)

• JAM trinity saved $10bn since 2017

  • 75–80% coverage; M [Jan Dhan] + J [Jan Dhan] + A [Aadhaar]
  • 40cr beneficiaries (Aug 2020); 99.9% inclusion

#Digital Divide — NSO 2017–18

• Access to computer:
  • R [Rural] — 4%
  • U [Urban] — 23%
• Internet:
  • R [Rural] — 13%
  • U [Urban] — 37%

#Digital Payments (2017–18)

• $10bn (NITI) to rise to $100bn by 2023
• → Ratan Watal Committee
• → Create DIPAYAN Fund [Digital Payment Action NIW]

• Digital Transactions per capita: 2.4 (2014) → 22.4 (2019)
• 84% → still cash based
• 53% of value → RTGS + NEFT

#Digital Payments — more

• Digital heap; Digi footprint; Democrat of data; data as public good; Infodemic; Digital independence; digitally empowered SOC [society]; knowledge economy; citizens → netizens; Data Harvesting → Profiling
• BN Shrikrishna Comtee on Data Protection
• Kris Gopalан on non-personal data

#Data Economy

• US $1 billion digital economy
• Data governance — Quality India

#AAA [Account Aggregator Architecture]

• Several Buyer Apps (top layer)
• Open API (bidirectional)
• Several Provider Platforms (bottom layer)
• → Open NTW [Network] Model
• IT sector is a $194 bn industry & contributes 8% to GDP

#Skills GS-III

• 54% formal skill as compared to 96% South Korea
• India Skills Report, 2020:
  • 46% of youth employable
  • 4 women (43%) are as employe [employed] as men (46%)
  • 45% employers find it hard to get suitable candidates
• OECD survey — 30% I [Indians] youth in NEET [Not in Employment, Education, or Training] category
• 12mn enter labour market annually but present skilling capacity is max 7mn
• Under PMKVY, T&L [Training & Livelihood] people trained but only 21% got placements

#NSDM framework

• NSDM
• NCVET
• NSDC
• NSBF

#Need for Skilling GS-III

1. Support structural Δ [change] in eco
2. Gainful emp [employment]
3. Harness demog div [demographic dividend]
4. Plug Industry–Skill mismatch
5. 3.5 trillion skills gap of workforce
6. New age jobs

#Challenges

1. Huge target — 300mn by 2027
2. Deficient capacity
3. 22mn+ run skilling schemes
4. Complex eco
5. No nodal regulator
6. Quality to placements (24%) (2016–19)
7. Rapidly ↓ local [funding]
8. Social accepter of VE [Vocational Education]
9. Multiple skills needed

#Solutions / Initiatives

• Allow vertical mobility
• Transferable skills (across occu [occupations])
• Re-skilling
• Behav & [behaviour change]
• Skills on Wheels (skill kicks in Brazil)
• PPP — FB–5mn Rural Youth in digi skills — SheMeansBusiness
• Inclusive skilling
• ASEEM portal [Aatmanirbhar Skilled Employee-Employer Mapping]
• 1 dis, 1 skill [One District One Skill]
• RTE → Vocational Edu
• SANKALP, STRIVE, YuWaah
• 1st Global Skills Park @ MP

Mehak ✓ [topper's name/checkmark]

#Telecom GS-III

• We 2nd largest
• 1.19bn subscribers
• Teledensity — 88% in FY21
• 2nd highest internet subscriber
• 3rd largest FDI recipient (7%)
• Emp [employment] to 3.2mn directly; 1.8mn indirectly
• Industry debt — ₹3.6 lakh / 5 cr
• 6% to GDP in 2019, target 8%

#Insurance GS-III

• 3.7% of GDP — 19 penetration (global avg — 6.3%)
• CAGR — 12%
• Density:
  • ₹4,185 → ₹5,798 (2019)

• PDI limited to 71% in budget 2021 [FDI in insurance raised to 74%]
• "Missing middle" products needed

#Case Studies / Examples

#Health

• CATCH — Sikkim
• Smart Anganwadi in Guj [Gujarat]
• Janta Clinic, Jaipur
• Health ATM @ Rly [Railway] Station
• Jaga Mission, Odisha — India's largest slum land title project
• Nirmaya — placement-linked skill training in J&K
• "Our green infra like Garden / Rain trees of China"

#Poverty

• Sikkim — LFPR [Labour Force Participation Rate] = 40% when nat. avg is 25%
• Sakala, KN [Karnataka] — Service Guarantee Act 2011
• SANGRAM — Maharashtra; Arjun ePDS
• Pyaar Praday Yoj, MP
• 7-star Rainbow scheme, HR [Haryana]

#Safety

• Safe City — Suraksha Setu — 04P [model]; model for safety in Surat
• Online police start — UP; Mo Sarkar, Odisha
• BMC Pothole Challenge — 41%; cases resolved within time = ₹500 to complainant if not fixed in 24hrs from local I's [Inspector's] salary
• Traffic police mannequin — Bangalore + pedal police (police on bicycle in park areas)

#Governance / Administration

• 5T Action Plan, Odisha
• Jan Soochna, Raj [Rajasthan]

#Digital India examples GS-III

• e-Cabinet — Uttarakhand
• e-Saathi — Manali, Sonipat
• 1st cashless island — Karang, Manipur; CUGiL app — EC
• Pune MC — ATT — issued ₹2200 cr bonds
• GIS mapping for property tax in Gujarat (Surat)
• Hailakandi (Assam) — go/giving of 5 saplings to parents of new born girl child → income + nutrition
• Mini banks in Gajapati, Odisha — in panchayats with banking facilities
• High density farming in Kupwara, Kashmir
• Bijli Panchayat, MR; Green temple — Tirupati; 100% LPG in HP
• Village Annamdix [Annadhi?] — 100% solar powered; Pani Panchayat — Odisha

#Women

• iNASSCOM — 9% startup founders are women
• Only 29% women internet users in I
• Menstrual leave — Bihar, gone; Zomato
• Ethiopia — Gender-balanced cabinet (50% women)

#Education

• ASER survey — Std VIII: 85% lack basic reading skills; 50% lack numeracy skills
• CAG 2017 — only 8% comply w. RTE
• PRATHAM → Multi-level learning

End of Social Justice notes — 11 pages transcribed

#ASEAN

• US $1 mn COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund

#Importance for India

• Centrality in India's foreign policy (SAGAR [Security And Growth for All in the Region] & Indo-Pacific)
• Maritime security (40%+ of trade & energy)
• Investment opportunities
• Lucrative market
• Countering China (ASEAN sees India as a Balancer — boxed/highlighted)
• Integration with regional & global supply chains
• Addressing regional & environment issues
• Failure of SAARC → look outside the region

#Way Forward

1. Bringing ASEAN into SCRI [Supply Chain Resilience Initiative]
2. Cultural connect
3. Review FTA to strengthen it

#India-ASEAN Relations — Timeline

• 1992 — Sectoral partner

• 1996 — Dialogue partner

• 2002 — Summit level

• 2012 — Strategic partner

• ASEAN = India's 4th largest trading partner

#Cooperation Areas (ASEAN pillars)

• Economic
• Political & security (ARF [ASEAN Regional Forum], ADMM+ [ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Plus])
• Socio-cultural (sot of & diaspora; India is in ASEAN)
• Connectivity (IMT [India-Myanmar-Thailand], KMP [Kaladan Multi-Modal Project])
• Science & tech (A-I [ASEAN-India] S&D [Science & Development] Best Fund)
• Environment (A-I [ASEAN-India] Green Fund)

#BRICS

• 50% of world economic growth
• 42.1% of world population
• 23% of world GDP by 2018

#Significance

• Safe space to modulate rivalry (e.g. India-China engaged even during 2017 Doklam)
• Providing a transcontinental reach
• Boosting India's bid for multilateral reforms
• Contribution in creating an inclusive international financial architecture (NDB [New Development Bank])
• Trade dependency
• Expansion of agenda to include CC [climate change], SD etc.
• Focus on IBSA [India-Brazil-South Africa]

#Challenges

• Disparities among members
• Suspicion about Chinese regional & global ambitions
• Approach towards multilateral reforms — no unanimity
• Dependency on other global institutions (G20 during GFC'08)
• Changing world order
• No capital (in NDB as compared to WB / IMF)
• Low intra-country trade

#Achievements — NDB [New Development Bank]

• → 10bn for COVID-19

• → 62 large projects

• CRA [Contingent Reserve Arrangement]

• Medical cooperation: Ufa Declaration (2015) → BRICS [illegible] Vaccine R&D Centre mooted in 2018

• BRICS Science, Technology & Innovation (STI) Framework Programme, 2015

• Expanding trade (10+ of world, intra-BRICS exports 1 by 45%)

• BRICS Rapid Info Security Council

#Way Forward

• Bottom-up (part of civil society & [illegible])
• Brasilia Declaration presented a vision for rules-based, transparent, non-discriminatory global trade

#G20

• 90% of world GDP; 75% of global trade; 60% of population
• Objective: Policy coordination
  • Promote financial stability (2 tracks: Finance + Sherpa)
  • New multilateral financial architecture

#Importance

1. Policy coherence, analysis to support growth & development in developing countries
2. Enabling environment for inclusive global growth & development
3. Supports women issues, Agenda 2030, terrorism etc.
4. Global representation

#Achievements

• 2008 GFC — Final reforms (LBBPs [Lehman Brothers-related bailout packages/reforms])
• Bolstering final regulatory bodies quality
• Support economies during COVID-19
• Trade Facilitation Agreement
• Increased lending capacity of IMF
• Large enough to make prompt decisions (20 members only)

#Challenges

• No objective flow to set goals & measure progress
• Every country adds new issues during its presidency
• Exclusivity of members
• Not all resolutions fully implemented
• Weakened authority due to dominance & sectarian interests

#Way Forward

• Continuity of issues
• Provide strategic vision
• Strengthen ties with UN
• Robust global supply chain [chains]

#SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

• "Shanghai Spirit" — mutual trust, benefit, equality etc.
• 2 permanent bodies: Secretariat; RATS [Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure]
• Structure:
  • Heads of State Council
  • Heads of Govt Council
• 42% of population; 20% of GDP

#Relevance

• Controlling regional terrorism
• Participants in political dynamics of Afghanistan
• Political: renew bilateral ties
• Strategic: greater visibility in affairs of Eurasian region
• Economic: rich in iron / coal / oil / gas / gold / zinc / uranium
• Connectivity: TAPI [Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline], IPI [Iran-Pakistan-India], CASA-1000 electricity Karimi

#Challenges

• Dominance of China
• Controlling Pakistan-sponsored terrorism
• Trust deficit
• No connectivity with CAR [Central Asian Republics] & beyond

#Way Forward

• Maintain independent voice
• Revitalize connectivity
• Constructively engage Pakistan
• Terrorism & deradicalization of youth

#SAARC

• Founded: 8 members, 1985
• Last summit: 2014
• 2016: Summit cancelled due to Pathankot and Uri attacks
• 2020: Virtual conference and health ministers meet to cooperate on COVID response

#Issues with SAARC

• Colonial legacy: Still entrapped in colonial legacy of communalism, unclear boundaries, etc.
• Mutual mistrust: It does not allow regional integration and cooperation (contrast Europe)
• Trade: Low regional trade leads to low integration (IInb [illegible] least integrated region)
• Domination: Fear of India's hegemonic role in the region — Big Brother (notation)
• Bilateral issues: India-Pak rivalry remains biggest obstacle for SAARC
• Charter: SAARC charter does not allow discussion on contentious and bilateral issues
• No connectivity → must focus on open issues like ECO

#Need to Revive SAARC

• Common issues: security, development, climate change and Himalayas
• Interdependence: cross-border rivers; landlocked members; lack of resource self-sufficiency
• EU and ASEAN: living examples of regional cooperation bringing economic growth
• Significance for India:
  • Check China's influence by engaging neighbors in economic cooperation
  • It offers India a platform to showcase its leadership abilities

#Way Forward

• Create mechanism for informal discussions → Distinct South Asian identity; Better People of SAFTA
• Form Conflict conciliation groups for resolving disputes
• Expedite sub-regional initiatives like BBIN motor vehicle agreement

#Intra-BIMSTEC Trade (1%) > Intra-SAARC Trade (5%)

(Notable implications)

• Notable: Intra-SAARC trade (1%) > Intra-BIMSTEC Trade (5%)
  • SAU: food bank
  • Sol: [illegible]
  • Power: [illegible] grid
  • NEPAL, BHUTAN, BANGLADESH, MALDIVES, SRI LANKA noted on map
• South Asian trading costs are 20% higher than Asian average

#BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation)

• BIMSTEC charter has been finalized and is expected to be signed in January 2021
• It will give BIMSTEC a long term vision and clearly outlines the roles and responsibilities of different institutional structures

#History

• Founded in 1997 through Bangkok declaration
• Secretariat in Dhaka established in 2014
• 1997 June: BIMSTEC established (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand — Economic Cooperation)
• 1997 December: Myanmar joins
• 2004: Nepal and Bhutan also join

#Significance for India

• No Pakistan, so a better alternative to SAARC
• Restricts China's influence by stronger economic cooperation
• Bridge between South Asia and South-East Asia; supports India's neighborhood first and Act East policies
• Brings more development opportunities to India's NE region due to geographical location
• The region has huge untapped reserves of natural gas

#Challenges

• Limited interaction: Only four summits in last 20 years; delay in setting up Secretariat (CSOTSE [illegible])
• Lacks unity: Nepal & Thailand did not participate in Milex-18, the first military exercise by BIMSTEC
• Connectivity: Poor road and rail connectivity

#Way Forward

• Conclude FTA for greater economic cooperation
• Consider expanding membership to Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore

#Indo-Pacific

• "Oceans are a single, shared, strategic space & what happens in 1 has implications in other"
• Area ranging from eastern coast of Africa to western coast of Americas
• It signifies the interconnectedness of Indian and Pacific Oceans, and their importance to security and commerce — "confluence of 2 seas"

#Growing Focus on Indo-Pacific

• Quad started in response to China's growing influence in Indo-Pacific (2017)
• USA renamed its Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command (2018)
• MEA set up a separate division for Indo-Pacific (2019)
• Germany announced its Indo-Pacific strategy (Sept. 2020)

#Global Focus Shifting to Indo-Pacific Because

• Rise of major economic powers — e.g. China and India
• Formation of important trade blocs e.g. RCEP (world's largest)
• Presence of natural resources — e.g. rare earth metals, methane hydrates
• Fear of Chinese domination:
  • Militarization of South China sea islands
  • Refusal to follow PCA ruling on South China Sea
  • Leasing of islands (Maldives) and ports (Sri Lanka)

#India's Vision of Indo-Pacific — FOIP [Free and Open Indo-Pacific]

• Rules based order, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity
• Nine dash line violates territorial integrity of SE Asian nations
• Freedom of navigation:
  • FONOPS [Freedom of Navigation Operations] in South China Sea by US, UK, Australia etc.
• Responding power projections with partnerships
• Quad in response to China's domination

#Challenges India Faces

• Economically not big enough to match Chinese investments in small countries
• Low economic integration — India not part of RCEP
• Limited Naval capacity: e.g. India has just 20 submarines; China has 70
• Aggressive maritime strategy can create problems on land border

#Way Forward

• Joint Blue Dot network to counter Chinese BRI
• Strategic use of A&N [Andaman & Nicobar] islands; more pacts like Comcasa, Lemoa, Beca
• More collaboration with likeminded countries e.g. Quad + [ASEAN] + [illegible] Bilateral France
• Shore centrality [of] ASEAN

#Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)

#Quad Summit — Agenda Items (handwritten margin notes)

1. Global health — donate 1.2bn doses vaccine
2. Bob Health Security in IB [illegible] countries in [illegible]; [illegible] preparedness
3. [illegible] India cloud group
4. Climate supply value chain
5. 2-3 brand new: Clean economy, climate SC, [illegible] TF
6. 5G Quad fellow?

#Core Description

• Informal strategic forum between India, USA, Japan, Australia
• Maintained by semi-regular summits, information exchanges and military drills
• Started in 2007 as initiative of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, to establish an "Asian Arc of Democracy"
• Inactive for 10 years; revived in 2017 to counter China's growing influence in Indo-Pacific

#Significance of Quad for India

• Presents a united front against aggressive activities of China
• Counters Chinese influence in Indian Ocean; supplements India's limited naval capabilities through patrol boats, info exchange, etc.
• Deepen ties with US, Japan, Australia; help India secure a place in the new world order
• Also: COVID-19 cooperation

#Challenges

• Quad lacks institutional framework; meetings are ad hoc; no joint statements
• Priorities differ — India's priority lies in Indian Ocean, while Japan and Australia are concerned about the Pacific

#Way Forward

• Set up mechanism for regular consultation
• Expand scope beyond Indo-Pacific (Cybersecurity, SG, etc.)
• Include other likeminded countries, like UK & France (but not too many) → Quad+

#October 2020

• Second meeting of Foreign Ministers of Quad hosted by Tokyo
• In departure from earlier secrecy, FMs made public a large part of their deliberations
• Outcomes: FM's meet will become annual affair; building infra and connectivity in the region; cooperate on pandemic
• US said that it intends to develop quad into a coalition to counter China's aggression in the region

• Map shows: India, USA, Japan, Australia connected via lines across Indo-Pacific
• Timeline (bottom of page):
  • 2001: [illegible] — [illegible] relevant meeting
  • 2007: Annual meeting [illegible]
  • 2008 [illegible]
  • 2017: [illegible]
  • 2021: 1st [illegible] Leaders Summit / Ministerial meeting

#WHO (World Health Organisation)

• WHO is a specialized agency of UN, responsible for international public health
• Established in 1948; headquartered in Geneva with six semi-autonomous regional offices

#Functions

• It sets international health standards
• Provides technical assistance to countries
• Coordinate response to health emergencies

#Structure

• World Health Assembly: member states; supreme decision making body
• Executive Board: technical experts; oversee implementation of programs
• Secretariat: headed by Director General; implements the programs

#Source of Funds

• Assessed contributions: paid by member states based on GNP and population
• Voluntary contributions: paid by member states, organizations, individuals, etc. — USA

#Achievements

• Eradication of smallpox; near-eradication of polio

#Issues: (funds, functions, [illegible])

• No stable source of funds; dependent on voluntary contribution (20% assessed, 80% voluntary)
• No single document to outline its responsibilities
• Unlike WTO, it has no powers to bind or sanction members; can only advise
• Lacks administrative strength for effective coordination; relies on bureaucracy

#Criticism in Handling COVID

• Delay in acknowledging human-to-human transmission: Taiwan informed WHO of it in December 2019, but WHO waited till mid-January for Chinese confirmation
• WHO urged countries not to spread fear by imposing travel restrictions
• Relied on Chinese data, instead of verifying the same; WHO team went to Wuhan only in mid-February; Praised China for transparency and effective COVID control

#Way Forward (In December 2020, India submitted 9 point reform plan)

• Empower WHO Director General to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) even without consensus in IHR [International Health Regulations] Emergency Committee
• For funding of WHO programs, pre-earmark voluntary contributions so that money can be used where it is needed the most
• Monitor expenditure at micro level for greater transparency and accountability in use of funds
• Set up a Standing Committee of Executive Board to supervise member states' implementation of WHO's recommendations
• Set up mechanism for fair and equitable access to vaccines and diagnostic tools (prevent vaccine nationalism)

#Brexit

#European Union and Britain

• 1957: European Economic Community (Treaty of Rome)
• 1963 & 1967: Britain tried to join, blocked by France
• 1973: Britain joined
• 1975: Referendum; Britons endorsed staying
• 2007: Lisbon Treaty (exit by negotiation)
• 2016: Referendum
• 2020: 'British Exit' from the European Union

#Why Britain Quit EU?

• Monetary contributions to EU seen as financial burden (net 9 billion pounds highlighted)
• Refugee crisis in EU and rising threat of terrorism in EU
• Political parties using populist nationalism and anti-EU sentiments
• Not integrated enough: did not use Euro currency, not part of Schengen area

#Impact on EU

• Weaken EU's reputation and strength at global forums
• Promote further disintegration; other countries too may be tempted to quit
• EU will no longer get the financial contributions from UK

#Impact on India

• India considers Britain as a gateway to EU; now with Brexit, India loses the advantage
• There are more than 800 Indian companies in Britain; with BREXIT, the business of these companies will be affected
• Could lead to the movement of skilled labour from India to Britain
• A new trade agreement with UK will be negotiated

#Cross-Border Flood Management

• Why: 1 in flood → CC [climate change]; large part depends on rivers (80%: 1 → 44 major rivers [illegible]); integrated approach
• Issues:
  • Sharing of data is the [illegible]
  • Asymmetry: upper riparian states > lower [states]
  • No regional agency
  • Water: [illegible] big tech challenges
  • In Bangladesh: dam on Chenab [illegible]
  • Poor implementation

#Country-wise Notes (from table)

• Regional agency: pol will (of) Amazon COOP [cooperation] & [illegible]; long-term planning
• Shown on map

#WTO — Dispute Settlement System

(Also see class-45)

#Structure (flowchart)

• Ministerial Conference

  • General Council
    • Dispute Settlement Body
    • Trade Policy Review Body
  • Goods Council | Services Council | Intellectual Property Council
  • Appellate Body
  • Panel

• Consultation (60 days) → Panel (6 months) → Appellate Body (30 days)

#Appellate Body (AB) Crisis

• With the retirement of two of the remaining three members, AB has been dysfunctional since December 2019
• Some member states have established a temporary arbitration mechanism; India and US are not part of it; China is

#Appointment Issues

• Problem: Appointment is by consensus method; so even a single member can block appointments (e.g. USA)
• Suggestions: Make appointment by majority, not consensus; increase term and number of AB members; automatic launch of selection process before expiry of term

#Delays

• Problem: Increase in procedural delays in past few years
• Suggestion: Increase administrative staff and lawyers, streamline the process

#Precedent Issues

• Problem: AB treats its decisions as precedents for future disputes; but AB has no such powers; also, most trade disputes are unique
• Suggestion: Allow AB to consider extent to which prior decisions can be used for new disputes

#Other Problems

• 94% of global [illegible] — failure of negotiations (e.g. Doha round); fishery subsidy; vaccine patent waivers etc.
• No respect of rules — e.g. US-China trade war
• Each push for their own agenda — e.g. e-commerce
• IT: [illegible] tension
• Opaque internal process of DG [Director General] of WTO
• Non-tariff barriers to trade
• Rise of bilateral and multilateral FTAs
• India's exports doubled in less than a decade

#UNHRC (UN Human Rights Council)

• Pakistan has been re-appointed to UNHRC despite poor human rights record

#What are Human Rights?

• They are inherent rights that all humans have; need not be granted by any state
• They are universal, and same for everyone
• Universal Declaration of Human Rights was adopted by UNGA in 1948

#UNHRC

• Established by UNGA in 2006 to protect human rights around the globe
• It has 47 members, elected for 3-year term, by UNGA, by simple majority
• It investigates violations of HRs; reports to UNGA; recommendations not binding
• Through UPR [Universal Periodic Review], it reviews human rights record of each UN member state (class 1 UBI [illegible])

#Issues

• Many UNHRC members are themselves systematic offenders (Pakistan, China)
  • Many countries get elected unopposed due to geographical quota system
  • Secret ballot allows rights violators get elected (China); countries not publicly accountable for their votes
• It has failed to prevent violation of human rights in most countries
• It has disproportionately high focus on Israel; US quit from UNHRC in 2018
• Largely ignores rights violation against weaker sections: like elderly, children, PwDs

#Way Forward

• Focus general issues like children & elderly, instead of country specific violations
• Focus on thematic issues like biotech & AI, which have significant human rights implications
• To ensure effectiveness, connect HRC's work with other UN organs

#India-EU Relations

(India-EU bilateral framework — from p12 bottom)

#India-EU Bilateral Overview

• Secretariat: China, Sudan [illegible]

#Areas of Cooperation

• Economic:
  • EU is India's largest trading partner
  • Dev: SDA [illegible]
  • CC [Climate Change]: clean energy
  • Father [illegible]
  • EU offers GSP [Generalised System of Preferences]
  • Largest FDI [source]
  • EU offers GSP
• Defence & Security:
  • IFC [International Finance Corporation] / counter piracy / [illegible]
  • 000 [illegible] & students for euro [illegible]

#Issues (India-EU)

• Trade: India + EU — 1/7; China = 18+)
  • Created IMTA [illegible]; return on CAA; KSTO [illegible]
  • Protectionism, MFTA, anti-migration — Brexit
• BTIA [Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement] Issues:
  • Proposed BTIA when India EU; [illegible], in 2007; 15 rounds so far
  • Lowering [illegible] of law in EU [illegible]: is legally binding clause on HR [Human Rights], labour, environment etc.

#India BTIA Issues

1. Not a data secure country
2. Service sector: I want access under MFN/MY, EU NHB
3. Office on bilateral dispute settlement much: UK, France
4. India: Hammont [illegible] bit with UK, France

#UNSC (UN Security Council)

• Recently, India became UNSC member for the 8th time
• India's overall objective during the two-year tenure will be achievement of NORMS

#New Orientation for a Reformed Multilateral System (NORMS)

1. New opportunities for progress
   • Innovative solutions for inclusive development
2. Effective response to terrorism
   • Greater coordination to check terror financing & use of ICT
3. Reforming multilateral system
   • UNSC should reflect contemporary realities
   • Inadequate existing mechanisms — e.g. weak COVID response
4. International peace and security
   • Commitment to international law
   • Reforms in UN peacekeeping operations
5. Technology with a human touch
   • Use of tech to reduce human suffering

• In achieving NORMS, India's efforts will be guided by the 5S approach: Samman (Respect); Samvad (Dialogue); Sahyog (Cooperation); Shanti (Peace); Samriddhi (Prosperity)

#What Should be India's Approach with Different Countries?

• With P5 members, avoid the temptation of taking sides
• With non-permanent members, aspire for their leadership
• With non-UNSC members, be the voice of the weaker nations
• Our success will depend on effectiveness in raising issues that go beyond the interest of the big five

#Strategy → Maximize support on UNGA; need resilience in UNSC

#Why UNSC Needs Reforms?

• UN members increased from 113 to 193, but UNSC composition remained same
• While Europe is over-represented, Africa is under-represented; Africa and South America have no representation at all
• Does not reflect contemporary realities (India, Japan, Germany)
• Use of veto power ends up blocking key decisions — e.g. on Israel

#What Constitutes UNSC Reform Agenda?

(Five sets of issues identified by the General Assembly)

1. Regional representation
2. Categories of membership
3. The question of veto
4. Size of an enlarged Council and its working methods
5. UNSC-UNGA relationship

#Credentials for India's Bid for Permanent Seat

• Founding member of UN
• World's largest democracy; one of the fastest growing large economies
• India is a responsible nuclear weapons state
• One of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping missions
• India is seen as a responsible power, which adheres to global rules and norms (Italian marine case; South China Sea case)
• Issues: poor socio-economic indicators; military projection limited to IOR; NPT; China

#UN Peacekeeping Forces

• Formed in 1945; it aims to help countries torn by conflict to create conditions for lasting peace
• Peacekeepers remain members of their respective armed forces
• It is not 'UN Army'
• It is collective responsibility of UN members
• Major successes: Sierra Leone (1999 to 2005); Burundi (2006)
• Major failures: Rwanda genocide 1994; Srebrenica massacre 1995

#India's Role

• More than 200,000 Indians have served in 59 of the 71 UN peacekeeping missions established around the world since 1948
• In 2007, India became the first country to deploy an all-women contingent to a UN peacekeeping mission
• Recently, Indian peacekeepers serving in South Sudan were awarded UN medal for their contribution to building peace in the region

#Additional Comments

• In practice, a nation's voice is in proportion to what it contributes
• Chinese funds give it a role in formulating peacekeeping mandates
• Troop contributions alone does not give much say in world power politics
• US 28%; China 15%; India 1%

#TPNW (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons)

• Adopted in 2017 due to ICAN [International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons] campaign
• Force in [illegible]: 86 signed; 51 ratified
• No US / China / India / Pakistan / Britain / France / Israel / N. Korea

#NPT vs TPNW Comparison Table

• India opposes both; pursues only conference of disarmament
• Shown as bar chart: nuclear warheads by country (Russia, US, China, Pakistan, India, N. Korea)

#Nuclear Weapons Count (bar chart, bottom of p14)

• Russia: ~6500
• US: ~5600
• China: 250
• Pakistan: 140-150 (approx)
• India: 120-130 (approx)
• N. Korea: 30-40 (approx)

#NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty)

• Proliferation → increase in number
• Nuclear proliferation → spread of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear weapon states
• NPT: signed in 1968 to prevent spread of nuclear weapons; in force since 1970

#Three Categories Under NPT

→ Nuclear Apartheid (annotated)

#Successes

• Number of nuclear weapons reduced: 70k in 1986; 14k now
• Controlled number of countries with nuclear weapons

#Issues

• No time limit for P5 to eliminate their nuclear weapons
• Could not prevent China from helping Pakistan and North Korea build nuclear weapons

#Why is India Not Signing NPT?

• Discriminatory:
  • NPT is discriminatory; divides world into nuclear 'haves' and 'have-nots'
• Neighbours:
  • Signing NPT would require India to destroy its nuclear weapons
  • But India has two nuclear neighbours; Pak is India specific
• 2008 deal:
  • India no longer needs to sign NPT as Indo-US Nuclear deal and subsequent NSG waiver has given it access to international nuclear cooperation

#CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty)

• It bans all nuclear tests of all purpose, in all environments
• After WW-2, hundreds of nuclear tests were polluting environment / destroying life
• 1954: Castle Bravo tests by USA; Nehru called for standstill agreement
• 1955: Nikita Khrushchev proposed CTBT; Negotiations began
• Problem: Can't verify other's underground tests
• Result? PTBT 1963 banned nuclear tests in underwater, atmosphere, outer space
• Problem? Underground tests continued
• 1980s: USSR and USA agreed on comprehensive ban
• 1996: UNGA adopts CTBT
• CTBT is still not in force, why? Because 8 countries have not ratified it
  • Signed but not ratified: USA, China, Israel, Iran, Egypt
  • Not signed: India, Pakistan, North Korea

#Foreign Policy in a Changing World

#Different Phases of Indian Diplomacy

• 1947-62: Optimistic Non-Alignment

  • India's objectives in this phase were to resist dilution of its sovereignty
  • Independent stand taken in Korean war & Suez canal crisis 1956

• 1962-71: Decade of Realism and Recovery

  • Concluded defence agreement with the US in 1964
  • From 1965 Tashkent agreement India started tilting towards USSR
  • Signed Indo-Soviet Treaty 1971

• 1971-91: Greater Indian Regional Assertion

  • Remarkable use of hard power in 1971
  • Faced US sanctions after 1974 Pokhran
  • US-China-Pakistan axis seriously threatened India's prospects as a regional power

• 1991-99: Safeguarding Strategic Autonomy

  • Emergence of unipolar world encouraged India to change its approach
  • Increased engagement with Israel, USA, ASEAN

• 2000-2013: India, a Balancing Power

  • Indo-US nuclear deal strengthened ties with Russia; coordinated with China on climate change and trade; made BRICS into a major global forum

• 2014-until now: Energetic Engagement

  • India's stature evident from world overlooking abrogation of Article 370
  • India's policy of Non-Alignment has turned into Multi Alignment

#Way Forward

• Need for greater realism in policy: "Desires of Delhi"

  • India needs to change the image of a reluctant power
  • Discomfort with hard power is reflected by lack of consultation with military
  • Soft power diplomacy is not sufficient to protect the country

• Need for strong economy:

  • An expansionary foreign policy needs a strong economy
  • China's assertiveness in foreign policy is derived from its economic power

• Need for multi alignment:

  • Today's world is characterized by complex interdependence
  • Indian foreign policy requires strategic hedging like Howdy Modi & Mamallapuram (informal meetings with US and China); Quad and SCO; Israel and Palestine

#Cross-Border River Water Cooperation

#Need

• Rivers are not confined to national boundaries
• Construction of upstream dam affects downstream countries
• Climate change is affecting glaciers and water flow in rivers
• Water scarcity can push countries to war
• Change in river's course can create boundary disputes

#Way Forward

• Countries must adopt certain minimum systems of water governance
• Create multilateral mechanism where all co-riparian countries get due representation
• Bring transparency in data collection on river water flow

#India's River Water Cooperation with Neighbours

• Indus Water Treaty 1960 with Pakistan
• Ganga Treaty 1996 with Bangladesh
• Treaties on Koshi, Gandak, Mahakali with Nepal
• Data sharing pact signed with China in 2006, for Brahmaputra and Sutlej

#Conclusion Framework (General Framework for IR Answers)

• Unilateral — physical doctrine [illegible], soft power, aid
• Bilateral — India-Japan tech collaboration
• Regional — SAARC, BIMSTEC
• Sub-regional — BBIN [Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal]
• Trans-regional — SCO, RCEP, QUAD

#Key Quotes and Concepts

• Enlightened self interest
• Hesitations of history / Dogma of Delhi
• Rit short-term reciprocity; both countries should eye a long-term win-win framework
• ASI — 3rd peace
• Multi-alignment aka Bismarck's Web of Alliances
• Fair & Free Trade
• Need for Creative Diplomacy
• OBOR× — Many Roads, Many Belts (MB, MR) ✓
• Concert of many, not power of few
• Asia of rivalry will hold us back; Asia of cooperation will shape this century

#SECURE Strategy (for SCO)

(S-E-C-U-R-E)

• S — Security of citizen
• E — Economic development
• C — Connectivity
• U — Uniting our people
• R — Respect for Territorial Integrity
• E — Environmental protection

#Delivery Deficit

• The India promises & China delivers

#World Order — Historical Phases

• Bipolar (1947-91) → Unipolar (1991-2008) → Multipolar (presently)
  • → Multivector
  • → Multiplex

"Diversiti is the essence of self reliance"

"Russia is an exception to the rule that there are no permanent friends in IR; [illegible] can lose situation"

"A nation with global ambitions cannot continue with unsettled borders" — MEA & Jaishankar

"The issue is not how US-China rivalry will play out but how the middle players / powers will play"

"India's 'inst' lag behind its ambitions" — Shyam Saran

"Regional groupings/multilateralism — goldilocks option"

#India and Afghanistan

• India needs Afghanistan for:

  • Regional peace
  • Link West
  • Gateway to CAR [Central Asian Republics]
  • Economic [ties]
  • Democratic gone [zone]
  • Inka support [India's support]
  • Economic trade

• Afghanistan needs India for:

  • Training & CBM [Confidence Building Measures]
  • (useful for any country)

#Dimensions of India-Afghanistan Engagement

• APC [illegible] — trade, connectivity
• Security — geopolitical / strategic
• Diaspora — [illegible]
• Defence — space
• Space — [illegible]
• Nuclear — [illegible]
• APR [illegible] — rule based order; UN/[illegible]

#Appendix Notes (margin annotations)

• "A nation with global ambitions cannot continue with unsettled borders, unintegrated region & under exploited opportunities." — MEA's Jaishankar
• "Issue is not how US-China rivalry will play out but how the middle players/powers will play"
• "India's inst[itutions] lag behind its ambitions" — Shyam Saran
• "Regional groupings/multilateralism — goldilocks option"