GS Paper III — Economy, Sci-Tech, Environment & Security

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#Page 1 — Overview: Indian Economy, Key Data, Financial Sector

#General Economy — Key Macro Data

• 3.05 trillion nominal economy (4th [rank])
• 10 trillion by PPP (#3 in the world)
• GDP pc [per capita] = $2191
• External debt = 558 bn; Forex reserves = 579 bn
• Public debt = 89% (after pandemic); earlier → 72%
• #FCCF [Fiscal Counter-Cyclical Framework / Fixed Capital Formation]

• Bar chart shows FCCF: 34% in 2011 falling to 28.8% in 2018 (x-axis: 2011, 2018; y-axis: percentage)

#Right Column — PCR, Quotes & Data Points

• PCR [Provisioning Coverage Ratio] — Yeshwant Deosthale [Deosthali] ©
  • 10% ↑ in new firms in a district = 2.8–4% ↑ in GDP (ES [Economic Survey] 20)
• Mega corporations of today were startups of yesterday
• "No crony, phone a loan" — [reference to corporate governance]
• [illegible Hindi/abbreviation: अरेटा?] also talks about minimum wages
• ↑ Anoop Satpathy © [illegible date] 2019

#World Bank Research

• WB research proves that countries that improve 10 points on EODB [Ease of Doing Business] create an add'l [additional] 60 new businesses per 1L [lakh] pop
• → EODB for "clues" leads to following for "masses"
• 1.41 lakh cr. revenue from GST in April 2021 → record high

#Employment Data (PLFS [Periodic Labour Force Survey])

• emp [employment] data = PLFS
• 40.1% LFPR [Labour Force Participation Rate] (PLFS 2019-20)
• 4.8% unempt [unemployment]
• 52 cr. [crore] = workforce
• 45% in agri
• ✓ 5.5% ↑ in FLFPR [Female Labour Force Participation Rate]

#Unemployment & Growth

• Unempt [Unemployment] = 8.5% in Oct '20, highest since Aug '16 (CMIE data)
• Idiosyncratic growth (ES) → "Missing Middle"
• Technical recession — B2B [two consecutive quarters] & 2 consecutive quarters in GDP
• K shaped recovery
• NEET category — ~30% [illegible] as per OECD

#Resources Tree / Classification

• Resources
  • Human
  • Natural
  • Financial
• Govt ⑧ [Government revenue]
  • Tax | Non Tax
    • DT [Direct Tax] | IDT [Indirect Tax]
    • Internal | External [borrowings]

#Philip Curve

• Philip curve — Inflation ↑ · Unempt ↓
• PSBs [Public Sector Banks] — ES [Economic Survey]: 90% frauds, majority NPAs, ₹23 loss on ₹1 lent
• SO? ESOP consolidation → PSBN [illegible]; LAGE 3(?) [illegible]

#PM Jan Dhan Yojana

• PM JDY [Jan Dhan Yojana] — 44 cr. a/cs [accounts]; 1.45L [lakh] cr. deposits
• 9.3% of GDP = FD [Fiscal Deficit]
• Gross NPA ratio at SCBs [Scheduled Commercial Banks] = 7.5%

#Liquidity Trap

• Curve: y-axis = Rate of Interest (Roi); x-axis = Demand for money
• At interest rate X (minimum), LT [Liquidity Trap] kicks in — demand for money is perfectly elastic (flat curve)
• Monetary policy becomes ineffective; ↓ mpt [multiplier?]

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#Page 2 — Employment Generation & Fiscal Management

#Employment Generation

• Food processing ↑ — Agro tourism
• Linkages with Agri & Services
• Startup India → Startup culture
• Labour intensive → Skilling
• FDI ↑ | ECOB [?] Mediation

#Employment Matrix (Diagram)

• Central node: EMPLOYMENT MATRIX
  • Export oriented → Labour Reform → 4 codes; Labour MIS
  • Manufacturing sector 100% → Tax incentives; PLI [Production Linked Incentive]
  • Startup culture → Labour intensive → Skilling → PMKVY [Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana]
  • Food processing ↑ → Agro tourism → Apprenticeship Promotion, Vocation educ [education]

#National Employment Policy

• ⇒ Nat'l Employment Policy
• NK Singh headed 15th FC [Finance Commission] → Fiscal Mgmt [Management]

#Informal Sector

• → 90% of GDP
• → 90% of empt [employment]
• → rural areas
• → 24 cr. [crore] informal workers into decent livery [livelihood] in I. [India] due to C-14 (ILO R&B [Recommendation])
• → large presence of female CEOs [illegible]

#PLFS 2019-20

• unempt → 3.8%
• LFPR → 38.2%
• LFPR → 40.1%
• agri → 40% [illegible]
• 1% of last year

#21st Century Fiscal Architecture (Diagram)

• House diagram: Roof = Information Tech
  • Pillars:
    • Fiscal Rules
    • Public Finance Management [PFM]
    • Independent Fiscal Oversight
    • Accrual System
    • [IFO — Independent Fiscal Oversight]
• FO [Fiscal Oversight] — 4% by 2025-26
• Extra borrowing of 0.5% to states during 1st 4 yrs [years]
• Comprehensive public finance management fro [framework?]

#Fiscal Mgmt & PFMS Diagram

• Align Financing → [arrow to] Countercyclical resilience
• Local ecosystem? → PFMS → MC [Ministry/Controller?]
• [arrow] → Citizen's budget & planning

#Tax Loss to India due to Global Tax Abuse ⑧

• Equivalent to 0.41% of GDP
• $10.31 Billion
• $8 per member; 9 ppp? [PPP] = [1 billion?]
• Greater than regional avg of 0.38% of GDP
• Less than global avg of 0.53%

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#Page 3 — Manufacturing, Labour & Sector-Specific Data

#Manufacturing & Labour

• 39% of GDP = 16%[?]; 26% workforce = 15%
• I [India] ranked 3rd in list of most suitable locations for global mfg [manufacturing] — Global Mfg Risk Index, 2020
• Make in India: 25% GDP by 2020; 100mn [million] new jobs

#MSME [Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises]

• 30% to GDP (mfg + services)
• 45% of mfg GDP
• 40% of exports
• 80% jobs in industry with just 20% [illegible]
• 2nd highest empt [employment] after agri sector (110mn)

#MSME Size Breakdown

• 99% are Micro | 94% are Unorg [unorganised] | 32% in mfg; 68% in services | 55% in rural

#COVID-19 Impact on MSMEs

• Covid 19 → 111 avg operations; 56% produced output
• In next 20 yrs., labour force in industrialised world will ↓ by 4%; India will ↑ by >30%
• Avg age = 29 with 65% pop'n in working age group

#Food Processing

• CAGR = 7% pa [per annum]
• 1.6% to GDP

• 10% to exports

• 40% of unempt [unemployment reduction]
• 1.6% of world trade

#Electronics

• 3.5% of GDP
• CAGR of 25% in last 4 yrs
• Domestic Prod'n [production] has doubled from ₹30bn → 2014-15 to ₹70bn → 2018-19
• I's [India's] share ↑ from 1.3% to 3% in 2018 in global mfg
• 45% of current demand through exports [imports?]

#Automobile

• 7% to GDP
• 4th largest mkt [market]
• Largest mfg [manufacturer] of 2/3 wheelers + tractors
• 37mn [million] employed

#Logistics Cost

• 14% of GDP [logistics cost]

#Empowerment through Entrepreneurship

• Command & Control → Plug & Play
• Atmanirbhar Bharat

#Share in World Trade (Table)

Category	1991	2017
Merchandise	0.5%	1.7%
Services	0.5%	3.4%

#Assemble in India — ES19 [Economic Survey 2019]

• 4 cr. [crore] jobs by 2025
• 8 tr. [trillion] by 2030

#Gems & Jewellery

• 7% to GDP [illegible box]
• Export oriented, Labour Intensive
• 11/12 diamonds in any jewellery in world are cut & polished in I. [India]

#Textile

• 2% of GDP
• 15% of exports
• 2nd largest textile fibre producer
• 2nd largest exporter of textiles + 2nd textile mfg capacity
• 5% share in global trade
• ESG [?] for ↓ (5%) in textile → oil jobs [?]; 1% in technical → 70 jobs [job creation stats]

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#Page 4 — Taxation: Low Tax-GDP Ratio & GST Federalism

#Low Tax to GDP Ratio — Root Cause Mind-Map

• Central issue: Low Tax to GDP Ratio (14%)
  • Tax Evasion
    • Parallel economy
    • Cash-based transactions
  • Aggressive Tax Planning by Private Sector
    • BEPS [Base Erosion & Profit Shifting], POEM [Place of Effective Management], GAAR [General Anti-Avoidance Rule], DTAA [Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement], transfer pricing
  • Structural
    • 90% informal workers
    • 85% unorg [unorganised] sector
    • 70% rural economy
    • 56% IT filers don't pay taxes
  • Ineffective Tax Admin
    • Complex structure
    • Loopholes → litigation
    • Data inadequacy
  • Others
    • High reliance on indirect taxes
    • Fluctuating economic growth
  • Tax Exemptions
    • 4.5% of GDP (> fiscal + no agri income deficit) tax
    • Corporates = 15%
    • Low effective tax rate on Super Rich
• ✓ I [India] has one DT payer for every 16 voters
• OECD = 34%

#Steps Taken

1. Transparent Taxation Platform — faceless assessment, charter [for] taxpayers
2. Revised form A/R&AS [?]
3. Ease of compliance — pre-filled form
4. Rationalise tax slabs — R21 [?] for corporate (15% for new mfg units); zero tax upto ₹5L for ind [individuals]
5. E-Nivaran → ARM [Alternative Resolution Mechanism?]
6. ↓ in scrutiny by at least 4 times in last 6 yrs.
7. Reduce legal burden — Vivad se Vishwas — DT; Sabka Vishwas Scheme — IDT

• ✗ Tax Information Network (Vijay Kelkar ©)

#DT [Direct Tax] Contribution

• DT contrib'd ↑ from 60% in 2010-11 to 52% in 2017-18; ↑ in IDT [Indirect Tax]
• IDT is good as it is regressive in nature

#Pre-GST vs Post-GST Fiscal Federalism

• Pre GST → fiscal fed'n [federalism] in OXYGEN to [illegible]; good fiscal neighbours
• Post GST → equal fiscal partners
• ↳ Vijay Kelkar [quote]

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#Page 5 — Manufacturing Sector Challenges & MSME Issues

#Mfg Sector — China Plus One Strategy

• "China plus one" strategy
  • #2 economy → sept PPP [?]
  • Yet only 2% of world mfg [?]
• Since the IR [Industrial Revolution], no country has become a major economy without becoming an industrial power — Lee Kuan Yew
• Stagnated at 16% for past 30 yrs. [years] boz [because]:
  1. Infra & logistics — transport, power, warehousing
  2. Restrictive labour laws → Informal sector (~90%); Capital Intensive Industries
  3. Skill mismatch
  4. Domination of small firms & low prod'y [productivity] (MSME Dwarfism)
  5. Complicated business envt [environment]
  6. Inadequate exp. [expenditure] on R&D & Innov'n — (0.7% of GDP) — Pvt sector MCs [Multinationals] for only 35% compared to 70% in China
  7. Slow tech adoption (Tech fatigue)
  8. Export challenges — operates at low end of mfg value chain + stiff competition (Bangladesh/Vietnam → apparel; Indonesia/"" → leather)
  • #Real 9. Tax & Tariff
  10. No capital access — NPA, ECB limits, FDI in big firms [?] only

#SO? [Solutions]

1. Equal focus on FOBB [?] & Cost of Doing Business
2. 4th IR [Industrial Revolution] — digital infra → Innov'n ecosystem → Smart mfg
3. R&D ↑
4. Focus on high value sunrise industry & MSME
5. Strategic Sneg'y [synergy] with GVCs [Global Value Chains]
6. Best [skilling] & gainful empt

#MSME Issues

1. Policy envt [environment] not conducive to growth
   • Dwarfism due to perverse incentives (99% are Micro)
   • Difficult entry (12 procedures / 37 days)
   • Exit norms (Insolvency in 7–9 yrs. — WB [World Bank])
   • Complex compliances etc
2. Small size, 40 infra & outdated tech
   • No economies of scale
   • Low quality
3. No adequate credit & capital — only 4% have access to formal credit due to:
   • Inadequate collateral
   • Low asset recovery rate (14%)
   • Complex loan procedures

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#Page 6 — MSME Solutions, 5F Formula & 3R Approach

#MSME — Further Issues (continued)

4. Ltd [Limited] access to Mkt [Market] & Info [Information] services
5. Skills & capacity
6. Inadequate social security net — 94% in unorg [unorganised] sector
7. MSME clusters
8. No awareness

#Way Forward — SCALE

• Sense of Security
• Credit
• Access to mkt
• Leverage Tech
• EODB [Ease of Doing Business]

#UK Sinha Report

• MSME code
• Turnover based defn [definition] — accepted
• Business Asset Fund (₹50,000 cr.)
• Estt. [Establishment] Enterprise Dev' Centres (for CBM [Capacity Building & Management])

#Raj Case Study of Boosting MSME [margin note]

#Initiatives So Far

• Public procurement (95%); PMEGP (CLS); MUDRA; PSB Loan 59 minutes (4000 Cr.); TREDS [Trade Receivables Discounting System]; CGTMSE [Credit Guarantee Trust for Micro & Small Enterprises] (credit flow ↑); Udyog Aadhaar; SPURTI; Lean Mfg Competitive Scheme; ASPIRE; ZED [Zero Defect Zero Effect]; Digital MSME; Udyami Mitra; MSME Sambonh [Sambandh?]; Samadhan

#5F Formula (Ujjwala) — Flow Diagram

• Farm → Fibre → Factory → Fashion → Foreign
• Nodes connected in a chain with arrows showing value chain progression

#Gen Economy — 3R Approach

1. Recycle — Asset monetization to create new infra
2. Rebuild — Aggregating savings by giving tax incentives to firms & households
3. Reinvest — To achieve self reliance, ↑ exports & attain sustainable growth

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#Page 7 — Jobless Growth, Vehicle Scrappage, Coal Crisis, ONORC, Corporate Banks

#Jobless → Job Loss Growth

1. Economy losing its ability to absorb new entrants
   • 2004-05 → 58%
   • 2011-13 → 15%
   • 2017-18 → −5%
2. Loss of jobs — 6.8mn lost during 2011-17; worsened during Covid
3. Impact on marginalised — poor & women
4. Informal sector empt ↓ due to "demonetisation", GST & then C-19
5. CMIE — 1Cr [crore] due to Covid
6. Max job losses in agri / mining / quarrying

#Vehicle Scrappage

• 5th largest 4-wheeler mkt
• 51 lakh vehicles → >20 yrs old
• 34 lakh vehicles → >15 yrs old
• (+) Circular economy; Govt revenue ↑ (40,000 cr in GST); Infra [contribution]
• (-) Fitness certif.; incentives to be provided by states
• Savings; geo-pol adv. [advantage] → AATMA [Atmanirbhar?] (recycling hub); Atmanirbharte; Atma Industry

#Coal Crisis (REA Guidelines of 22 day stock) — Sept 2020

• Immediate causes — Chinese dec't [decline?] from SE Asia [?] (like Indonesia, India's leading supplier)
  • Post pandemic dd [demand] ↑
  • No planning for floods
  • Export prices more than doubled
  • Renewable add'n [addition] slowed down — only 74% added in 2020-21
• Systemic causes (2014, 2018)
  • Debt burden & dampened Invt [Investment]
  • Saukbaaqa [illegible]
• Mining monopoly (CIL + SCO [?])
• Operational / logistics
• Rising pressure on domestic coal due to import substitution
• Impact? → eco recovery ↓ → inflation
• ↑ oil prices → spot price of power?

#FPO [Farmer Producer Organisation]

• Central sector scheme — 10,000 FPOs
• Support by SFAC [Small Farmers' Agribusiness Consortium]
• 86% S&M [Small & Marginal] landholding
  • → bargaining power
  • → fragmented land
  • → economies of scale
  • → enable mechanism
  • → ease of credit accessibility
  • → better price realisation
  • → cluster based approach
  • → facilitates organic farming

#ONORC [One Nation One Ration Card]

• 37% internal migrants
• (+):
  • Interoperability
  • Choice ↑
  • SDGs [Sustainable Development Goals]
  • Integration / synergy
  • Corruption, bogus cards ↓
  • Central data repository
• (−):
  • Exclusion error
  • Logistics
  • 4G data
  • Cost of addl [additional] food grain
  • Tech challenges
  • States' resistance
  • Hijacking of state schemes by Centre

#Corporate Houses as Banks

• Domestic bank credit to pvt sector is just 50% of GDP (>150% in S. Korea, US, China, Japan)
• NPAs of PSBs
• Growth needs of country
• 100 cr. for infra [illegible]
• (−) COI → interconnected lending
• (−) Evergreening of loans
• (−) Concentration of eco power (1AB [?])
• (−) No effective supervision by RBI (only, export [?])
• (−) Deposits of public = public safety net, still to be provided by govt.
• (−) yes/Bo [?] DHF [?]

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#Page 8 — Inclusive Growth, MGNREGA, Urban MGNREGA, Export Performance

#Banking Governance Quote

• "If you owe your bank a 100 pounds you have a problem but if you owe your bank a million pounds, it has." (NPA/Banking governance)

#PPP & Growth Quote

• "If India does not harness the potential of PPP for its growth, it will grow old before it becomes rich." — Vijay Kelkar ©

#Growth Quote

• "Economic growth means nothing unless it's inclusive growth" — John Green [?]

#HDI & Inequality

• 28.6% of I's [India's] HDI value is lost on a/c [account] of inequalities
• A country is poor because it is poor (vicious cycle)

#Sankalp se Siddhi

• Ease of Living Index

#Ease of Living / SDG Pie Chart

• Pie chart segments:
  • 45% Physical (waste water, pollution, housing)
  • 25% Economy / Economic
  • 25% Institutional / Governance
  • 5% Economy [?] (social)
• Connected to: Education, Health, Identity, Security

#Steps for MSME during Covid-19

• ₹20,000 cr. subordi [subordinate] debt
• ₹3L [3 lakh] cr. automatic loans / collateral-free
• ₹50,000 cr. equity infusion through MSME fund of funds
• Revised criteria
• No global tenders for procurement upto ₹200 cr.

#COVID-19 Statistics

• CMIE — 1Cr [crore] people lose jobs during lockdown
• Oxfam — Billionaire wealth ↑ by 35% during the pandemic

#Urban MGNREGA

• Why? → Covid had exposed structural weaknesses
• ~30% pop[ulation] but largely invisible for want of docs [documentation]
• 70% of social protection benefits are in rural India
• PLFS (2017-18) — unempt is higher in U (7.8%) than R (5.3%)
• Low wage, poor quality, informal work
• Prevent reverse mig'n [migration] & consequent pressure on rural economy
• +ve spillovers → dd [demand] ↑ training, assets / public goods
• e.g. MP → Yuva Swabhiman Yojana; Kerala since 2010; Jharkhand too.

#India's Export Performance

• Export Preparedness Index 2020 — avg score of 39 out of 100

#Challenges

• External factors (last me [illegible])
• Narrow export basket — 20/99 [products/countries]
• Product groups A/c for 80% exports
• No mkt diversif'n & penetration in high income countries
• Logistics ineffy [inefficiency] (14% → NIT [?])
• Sm [Some] protectionism
• Quality & competitiveness
• Failure to tap the potential of FTA [Free Trade Agreements]
• Low mktng [marketing]
• Primary & low tech goods

#Export Initiatives Diagram

• Central node: Initiatives
  • → SEZ [Special Economic Zones]; NIMZ [National Investment & Manufacturing Zones]
  • → Foreign Trade Policy
  • → RODTEP [Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products]
  • → TFA [Trade Facilitation Agreement]
  • → PLI [Production Linked Incentive]
  • → Exim Banks
  • → ECGC [Export Credit Guarantee Corporation]
  • → FDI

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#Page 9 — Energy: Production, Issues & Government Steps

#Energy — Overview

• 3rd largest producer
• 3rd largest consumer
• 5th largest installed capacity

#Energy Mix

• Thermal — 63%
• Hydro — 18%
• Nuclear — 2%
• Renewable — 29% (5th largest)
• Wind > Solar > Bio > Small Hydro: 43 : 40 : 11 : 6 (GW)

#Transmission & Distribution Losses

• T&D Losses = 18–20% in India; 8% avg in world

#Global Comparisons

• India per capita consumption of electricity is 1/3rd of global avg; 1/11th of USA

#Oil

• 3rd largest consumer
• 4th largest refiner
• Net exporter of refined oil
• 80% imports (2018)

#Clean Cooking

• IEA, 2018 — 53% of India's pop'n did not have access to clean cooking in 2017
• LPG coverage ↑ from 55% in 2014 to 97% — praised by IEA

#Energy in Various Indices

• Energy = highest share in IILL [illegible]; NIP + 100% FDI
• SDG 7 — 750mn [million] people gained access BW [between] 2000 & 2019
• Net exporter of electricity to Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar

#Energy Policy Quotes

• Annadata to Urjadata — PM KUSUM [Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan]
• Energy poverty → Energy for prosperity
• ISA, OSOWOG [One Sun One World One Grid]
• "Modernise, w/o the need to carbonise" — Greenkation? (Green tax)

#Issues — Faulty Def'n [Definition] of Electricity?

• 177% rural HHs [Households] suffer due to this [definition issue]
• Inter-state disparity — SS [surplus states] have power surplus
• Poor access due to (~300mn):
  1. Poor afford'y [affordability]
  2. Poor availy [availability]
• Poor quality — 53% villages for <12 hrs a day
• Inadequate Infra
• Unmetered connections
• No GW [gigawatt?] from diesel gen → Envt [Environmental] issues

#Causes

1. Stalled power projects
2. Rising NPAs — 34 stressed TPPs [Thermal Power Plants] with 1.74L [lakh] cr. debt O/S [outstanding]
3. Nuclear power not tapped
4. Tariff inadequacy — populism
5. Suboptimal impact of govt schemes
6. Cross subsidy
7. Inability to attract FDI
   • "Our gateway to a prosperous future" — APJ Abdul Kalam
   • 2–4% from #95; 10% globally [?]

#Govt Steps

• UMPP [Ultra Mega Power Projects] — 4000 MW
• Pvt'n [Privatisation] of coal mining
• SHAKTI [Scheme for Harnessing and Allocating Koyala Transparently in India]
• PRAKASH [Power for All]
• UDAY [Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana]
• Renewable energy
• DDUGJY [Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana] — 100% village [electrification]
• IPDS [Integrated Power Development Scheme] for urban areas
• Saubhagya
• Power for all
• Smart meters
• Nat'l Tariff Policy, 2016

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#Page 10 — UDAY, Logistics, Energy Dilemma, Tourism, Inland Water Transport

#UDAY — Line Graph

• Line graph: y-axis = Loan (units); x-axis = Years (FY15, FY16, FY17)
• Loan curve: 2.7 (FY15) → 1.9 (FY16) → 1.5 (FY17)
• Debt of DISCOMs shown
• Annotations: poor final health + high rate of subsidies
• "Less Avg billing rate" → Travel DISCOMS [?]
• Borrowings to make up losses; Low competitiveness of corporates; High rates from private [?]

#Logistics (Industry Overview)

• ₹215 bn industry — only 10–15% by organised players
• 22mn [million] employed
• "Freight 8 smart cities"
• 14% of GDP (cost) — [US: 9%; Global avg: 6%]
• Pie chart breakdown:
  • Transport: 61%
  • Warehousing: 24%
  • Freight fwding [forwarding]: 10%
  • Value added: 5%
• Transport breakdown (bar): Road 36% | Rail 19% | Water 5% | Air [1%?]
• 4.5L [lakh] road crashes — 1.5L die
• Taxpayer to [illegible] transfer; PPP [?] licensing [?] TTT

#Investment Models (Table)

Models	BOT [Build Operate Transfer]	EPC [Engineering Procurement Construction]	HAM [Hybrid Annuity Model]
Financing risk	Pvt	Govt	Both
Revenue collection	Pvt	Govt	Govt
O&M [Operation & Maintenance] risk	Pvt	Govt	Pvt

• PPP [Public Private Partnership] = sharing of:
  • 40% Revenue
  • Risk
  • Risk + Resources (?)
• Venn diagram: BOT ↔ EPC ↔ HAM (HAM bridges public & private financing)

#Energy Dilemma (Triangle)

• Triangle with 3 vertices:
  • Higher energy access & affordability
  • Higher energy security
  • Higher sustainability
• Central node: E [Energy] — tension between all three

#Tourism

• 5% of GDP
• 13% to empt [employment]
• 12th in forex
• PC [per capita] → ₹2mn [million] Invt [investment] in tourism generates 78 new jobs (Mtg [?] 18)
• Sustainable T [Tourism]
• One of targets in SDG 8, 12, 14
• Rural T; Medical T → SWOT
• MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conference, Exhibitions)
• Make in India → Move in India
• Travel & Tourism Index → dot = 54th [rank]

#Inland Water Transport

• 14,500 navigable waterways
• <1% of freight traffic
• 30% in Bangladesh; 20% in Germany
• Cost curve [illegible] (curve diagram)
• "Arthganga" [Arth Ganga] (river of wealth) — map
• Map of [illegible waterway routes]

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#Page 11 — Micro-Insurance, Transport Economics, Banking Structure, IBC, Circular Economy

#Micro-Insurance — 6 Pillars of Joy

• Central axis: 6 pillars of JOY
  • → Universal banking
  • → Financial literacy
  • → Overdraft upto ₹10,000
• Credit guarantee
• Pension for unorg [unorganised] sector / actor
• ₹43.2 cr. bank a/cs [accounts] as of March '21
• ₹1.45L [lakh] cr. deposits

#Cost vs Distance — Transport Modes Graph

• y-axis = Cost; x-axis = Distance
• Lines:
  • Road (steepest slope — highest cost per km at long distances)
  • Air [second steepest]
  • Rail (moderate slope)
  • Water (lowest cost per km at long distances)
• Cross-over points show optimal mode for each distance range

#Narasimham Committee — Banks Pyramid

• Pyramid with 3 tiers:
  • Top (3-4 banks): Global Banks
  • Middle (8-10): National Banks
  • [Rise tier]: Rise [?]
  • Base: Local banks
• 3-tier structure

#IBC [Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code] — GN Bajpai ©

• Process (top flow):
  • Petition before NCLT [National Company Law Tribunal]
  • → CoC [Committee of Creditors] formed: 14 days? [illegible days]
  • → Resolution profl [professional] appointed: 330 days [illegible]
  • → Plan approved by CoC
  • → Plan → [if] not → Liquidation
• OR → Resolution profl submits; CoC constituted; IP [Insolvency Professional] appointed

#IBC Appeal Hierarchy Diagram

• Appeal path:
  • NCLAT [National Company Law Appellate Tribunal] → SC [Supreme Court]
  • NCLT → DRAT [?] → DRT [Debt Recovery Tribunal] → [?]
  • CoLLP → Gvt'y P'ship [?] [Government Partnership?]

#IBC — Facts

• Cases → 3600 admitted; only 15% Reso'd [Resolved] (been most [?]); 800 liquidated, 90 resolved
• Better recovery — 42.5% (14.5% under Sarfaesi) with 20% realisable value
• Early settlement — 240 days against 4.3 yrs. earlier (success: not just ₹2mn but behaviour change)
• Self-empt [employment]
• 110 → 85% to I are self empt'd or casual workers

#Agri Domain — Issues

• (−) Agri domain (60%):
  • Job creation is low — only 4% hire outside workers
  • Low earnings — PLFS — ₹8000 pm [per month]
  • Highest gender pay gap (men can 3x more)

#Labour Laws

• Labour laws should neither be unfriendly nor extremely friendly, but empt [employment] friendly
• "Inflation is taxation w/o legislation" — Milton Friedman

#Circular Economy Diagram

• Circular flow: Recycle → Produce → [Use] → Recover → [back to Recycle]
• Annotations:
  • NIT [?] → 1.4 cr. jobs in 5-7 yrs.
• China's Batton town → 50% of all buttons on earth
• ₹1Gh [?] solar energy → 4000 direct + indirect jobs

#MGNREGA

• MGNREGA → ₹285 cr. / man day [illegible]
• Jobs: 18 per year? [illegible]
• Nat'l avg = ₹178/day (wage)
• Labour min → [illegible] = ₹375/day
• In nature [?], [illegible] = min [illegible]

---

#Page 12 — GDR/ADR, Bad Bank (NARCL/IRDCL), IBC, Railways

#GDR [Global Depository Receipts] / ADR [American Depository Receipts]

• Co. listed in India
  • → Domestic Custodian Bank
    • → Overseas Depository Bank (+ US Investors)
    • → ADR [issued to US investors]
• Steps: Co. → Domestic bank → Overseas Depository Bank → [DR issued]

#NARCL [National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd] / IRDCL [India Debt Resolution Company Ltd]

• Structure:
  • Bank → 15% cash [payment to bank]
  • → NARCL → acquires stressed assets
  • → IRDCL [manages resolution]
  • → Recover through sale
• Shortfall to be met by govt guarantee
• NPA/SRs [Security Receipts] → 85% securities

#IBC Process — Sub-Flow

• Default on Repay't [Repayment]
  • → IB [?] by / OR die
  • → APP [Application] accepted by NCLT
• RP submitted
  • → CoC constituted
  • → IP appointed
• Resol'n [Resolution]: approve by G'1 [?]
  • Liquid [Liquidate] if not approved
• (+) Time bound & mkt linked Resol'n
  • → EODB
  • → NPA crisis
  • → Incentivise R over L [Resolution over Liquidation]
  • → Easy [?] (Chakkravyuh challenge)
  • → Investor confidence ↑
  • → +++ Eco growth

#Bad Bank / NARCL / IRDCL — Details

• US: Mellon Bank; Sweden: Securum; ES [?]: 2016-17 → PARA [Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency]
• NARCL → set up by banks (RBI = 51%); also acts as ARC [Asset Reconstruction Company]
• IRDCL → AMC [Asset Management Company] to sell [realise] assets; PSB-managed
• Govt → guarantee of ₹30,000 cr. (NARCL)
• (+):
  • Cleaned up B/sheet [Balance Sheet]
  • Unlocking capy [capacity?] (NPA — 45%)
  • Credit creation
  • Save taxpayers' money to recap [recapitalise]
• (−):
  • Moral hazard (undue diligence by banks)
  • Rekapuwan kapin? [illegible] mostly 4% of bank
  • Doesn't solve systemic issues
  • Delay in recovery

#To Ensure Success [of Bad Bank]

1. Well capitalised ARCs
2. Finite tenure to resolve NPAs
3. Realistic valuation of NPAs (allow deep haircuts)
4. Prof'l [Professional] expertise
5. Reform PSBs

#Railways

• 4th largest n/w [network] in world
• 1.3mn [million] people employed
• Billet [Budget] delinking? [illegible]

#Why Pvt'n [Privatisation] Needed?

1. Nat'l Rail Plan — 16.7L [lakh] cr. for Railway transformation
2. DFCs [Dedicated Freight Corridors]
3. Low efficiency — recovers only 57% of cost through tickets
4. Tech advance'l [advancement]
5. Quality of service delivery — IRTC [?]

#No Pvt'n [Arguments Against]:

• Full pvt'n affected by BDC [?]
• No guarantee — catering services still receive complaints
• Creamy cap [cross subsidy?]
• Greater push for public transport — National devt [development]
• SO? Cost rational [?] / Regulatory Mech [Mechanism]

#Digital Era Quote

• "In the digital era, info & key [knowledge] is [illegible] & [illegible] is a weapon."

---

#Summary of Figures Cropped

File	Page	Description
general_economy_p1_01.png	1	FCCF bar chart: 34% (2011) vs 28.8% (2018)
general_economy_p1_02.png	1	Liquidity Trap curve (Roi vs Demand for money)
general_economy_p2_01.png	2	Employment Matrix central diagram
general_economy_p2_02.png	2	21st century fiscal architecture house diagram
general_economy_p2_03.png	2	PFMS/fiscal planning coordination diagram
general_economy_p3_01.png	3	MSME breakdown proportions (99/94/32/55%)
general_economy_p3_02.png	3	Share in world trade table (1991 vs 2017)
general_economy_p4_01.png	4	Low Tax-GDP ratio causes mind-map
general_economy_p4_02.png	4	Pre-GST vs Post-GST fiscal federalism diagram
general_economy_p6_01.png	6	5F formula flow diagram (Farm→Fibre→Factory→Fashion→Foreign)
general_economy_p8_01.png	8	Ease of Living pie chart (SDG dimensions)
general_economy_p8_02.png	8	Export initiatives spider/web diagram
general_economy_p10_01.png	10	UDAY line graph (DISCOMs loan curve)
general_economy_p10_02.png	10	Logistics sector pie chart + transport mode bar
general_economy_p10_03.png	10	Energy Trilemma triangle
general_economy_p10_04.png	10	Investment Models table (BOT/EPC/HAM) + PPP Venn
general_economy_p10_05.png	10	Tourism area diagram
general_economy_p11_01.png	11	Micro-insurance 6 pillars of joy diagram
general_economy_p11_02.png	11	Cost vs Distance transport modes graph
general_economy_p11_03.png	11	Narasimham Committee 3-tier bank pyramid
general_economy_p11_04.png	11	IBC process flow diagram
general_economy_p11_05.png	11	IBC appeal hierarchy (NCLAT/SC/NCLT/DRAT/DRT/CoLLP)
general_economy_p11_06.png	11	Circular economy cycle diagram
general_economy_p12_01.png	12	GDR/ADR structure flow diagram
general_economy_p12_02.png	12	NARCL/IRDCL bad bank flow diagram
general_economy_p12_03.png	12	IBC process sub-flow (default→RP→CoC→plan)

---

#Overview — Key Statistics (Page 1)

• 16.5% contribution to GVA [Gross Value Added]
• 42% contribution to employment
• 70% of rural HH [Household] depend on agriculture
• GCF [Gross Capital Formation] in agri = 15% (ES 19 [Economic Survey 2019])

---

#Agri Census 2015–16 (Page 1)

• Concentric circle diagram showing distribution of land holdings by size category:

  • Inner circle: Share / No. of Land Holdings
  • Medium ring: Medium (13.2%)
  • Outer ring: Large (<1%)
  • Remaining segment: Small (86+%)

• SHM [Small and Marginal] (<2 ha) = 85%

• Small holdings increasing, large holdings decreasing

• Avg size = 1.08 ha (↓ from 1.15 ha in 2010–11)

• Female = ↑ from 13% to 14% in 2015–16

  • SC = 12%
  • ST = 8.5%

• India = 10% of agri exports, 2% of world trade

• Mango, Meat, Rice = ~58% of total exports

• Agri export policy — ↑ from 30 bn USD to 60 bn USD by 2022

• Food grain — ↑ from 51 mt [million tonnes] in 1950 to 295 mn (29.5 mn) in 2019 [illegible suffix]

---

#Irrigation (42%) (Page 1)

• Canal = 30%
• Tubewell = 60%
• Tanks = 5%
• ES 20 → [illegible] cycle

---

#Rainfed Agri (55%) (Page 1)

• 40% to agri GDP
• 60% of total rural workforce
• 60% of livestock in such areas

---

#Horticulture (Page 1)

• 16% of net sown area
• 314 mn metric tonne production [underlined]
• > food grain since 2012–13
• 33% to agri GDP [boxed: Ln → ? Exports]

---

#Livestock — DSBY [Doubling Farmers' Income / Dairy Sector] (A48) (Page 1)

• 20% to agri GDP
• 16% to small farm HH income
• 8/3rd of rural pop°
• 9% to per employment
• 8% growth rate
• Largest pop° in world

#Dairy (Page 1)

• NTI → 330 mn mt by 2023–24 [boxed: current]
• 65–70% of livestock = milk since last 20 yrs
• #2 in milk since last 20 yrs [boxed: out in 149 in Exports]
• CAGR = 16.5%
• 40% of GCF, cow urine°
• PC availability of milk = 394 gms

#Fisheries (Page 1)

• Mehru Khmer° [illegible] — Matsya Kisan° economy
• 2nd largest producer
• 7% to agri GDP
• CAGR = 7%

---

#Subsidies → Need SIA [Subsidy Impact Assessment] (Page 1)

• 1.2 L cr = 2.85% of GDP
• Fertilizer = 70k cr
• Credit = 20k cr
• 40% farm mech° (US 92%, China 60%)

---

#Allied Sector / Credit (Page 2)

• Allied sector receives 10% of agri credit but contributes 40% of output (RBI)
• Credit breakdown:
  • Institutional (Instl) = 72%
  • Non-institutional = 28%
  • Avg 74k as debt [boxed in red/pink]
  • → NABARD [bracketed]
• 5Is = Irrigation, Investment, Infrastructure, Insurance, Intensification
• Handkerchief size land holding
• Evergreen Rev° [Revolution]
• Agri in ICU — Irregular, Cyclical, Uncertain Monsoon, Tech fatigue
• 53% of agri HH [Household] under debt
• 26% have insurance cover
• 82.5% of farmers are BPL [Below Poverty Line]
• Avg monthly income = ₹6246

#5Is Expanded

• Irrigation
• Investment
• Infrastructure
• Insurance
• Intensification

---

#Urea Dominates Fertilizer (Page 2)

• Most produced (86%)
• Most consumed (74%)
• Most imported (52%)
• Indiscriminate use
• Faulty govt policy
• No knowledge
• Organic manure↓
• Urea dominated
• Fiscal subsidies — 8nd [and] (after food°)
• Diversion of subsidy → urea = [illegible]
• Import reliance

#Diversion of Subsidy Table (Page 2)

%	Category
25%	Ineff° [Inefficient] urea produced
30%	Non agri uses
10%	Rich farmers
35%	Intended beneficiary [circled]

• ↑ Anup Verma et°, 66 pesticide [illegible] review

#SO? [Solutions] — Deharaise Urea Imports

• NBS [Nutrient Based Subsidy], SHC [Soil Health Card], Neem coated
• DBTisation of subsidy
• Organic
• Policy & Regulation awareness

---

#Pesticides — 15–85% Losses due to Pest (Page 2)

• Water impact — eg Endosulfan poisoning in Kasaragod due to pest residue
• Aerial spraying on cashew plants
• Resistance — [illegible]
• Biopen? [illegible]
• No tech access — Drift nozzle, spray shields
• SO? Pesticide Mgmt Bill 2020
  • IPM [Integrated Pest Management] [underlined]
  • Awareness
  • Organic Farm°
  • MH → UP → Prime paddy → cotton
  • Anup Verma E° — 66 [illegible] review

#Biopesticide

• = only 4.2% of total pesticide mkt [market]
• Only 12 are reg° [registered] under Insecticides Act, 1968
• 4th largest producer
• MH > UP > PB [Punjab], EHR [Himachal? illegible], paddy → cotton
• → PMB 2020
• Low NUE [Nutrient Use Efficiency] in agri = 38% despite consuming 80% of water resources [boxed in red]

---

#Farm Income & Productivity (Page 2)

• I took 22 yrs to 2x farm income at 3.3% growth rate during 1993–2015 (NITI)
• Pvt/Corp Invt = 2% only [underlined: Anup Daiwai?]
• 92k cr post harvest losses (NITI)
• Share of NE [North East] = <2% in agri credit → as per ES 20
• Annok Dalwai — only 15–40% share of farmer in consumer prices

#India map — NE agri credit share annotation

• Arrow: credit → India map (sketch)
• Annotation: NE = <2% (max)
• Annotation: >40% (max)
• 15–regional [illegible suffix] — 50 dist° of agri [illegible]

---

#Causes of Crisis in Agriculture (Page 3)

1. Uneconomic / like hardholdings
2. Stagnant prod° — falling yield & area
3. Dual distress — [input cost ↑] [farm revenue ↓]
4. Price risk
5. Monsoon dependence
6. Inadequate pub & pvt invt [investment]
7. No access to formal credit
8. CC [Climate Change]
9. Overcrowded agri
10. Faulty impl° of govt policies:
    • Oppressive APMC [Agricultural Produce Market Committee]
    • MSP [Minimum Support Price]
    • Stock limits under ECA, etc.

---

#Consequences (Page 3)

• Low farm income
• Unsustainable livelihood
  • NSSO — need at least 1 ha to cover consumption° but 65% have less than that → 213 farm HHs not able to make ends meet [boxed]
• Rising indebtedness
• Farmers' suicides — NCRB: 12,000 every year since 2013
• R-U migration [Rural to Urban]
• Exit from agri sector
• Rising dd [demand] for loan waivers
• CC's negative impact will be twice on unirrigated farm (20–25% income) than irrigated (15–18%)

#STO Farmers' Report (Page 3)

• By Centre for Study of Dev° Societies: point out that 76% of farmers would like to quit farming if given a chance

---

#Solutions — (Ashok Dalwai) (Page 3)

1. Liberalise dep° of farmers
2. Invt [Investment] — pvt — agri logistic, pub — irrig°, R&D, road
3. Income diversity
4. Extension services
5. Agri mkt reforms
6. Smarter credit
7. Data
8. Promote FoD Agri B [Freedom of Doing Agri Business?]
9. Farmers as partners — approach FPOs [Farmer Producer Organisations]
10. Revamp MSP regime
11. Insurance
12. Land reforms — NITI model law — Leasing

#Land Reforms Triangle Diagram (Page 3)

• Triangle with three nodes:
  • Top → Leasing
  • Bottom-left → Digit° [Digitisation] of records
  • Bottom-right → Conclusive ownership rights

13. Tech like raised bed planting — eg: soyabean in MP (↑)
14. Invt subsidies s/t [subject to] water & power subsidies
    • (6) Rootstock tech for fruits → can double prod° & is climate resilient
15. Any sum insured p. ha [per hectare]

#Bar Chart — Avg Sum Insured per Ha (PMFBY) (Page 3)

• 5.5 cr farmers
• Pre-PMFBY: ₹15,100 per ha
• PMFBY [Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana]: ₹40,700 per ha
• Best practice / case study = Beed Model
  • High drought risk
  • Pvt co. reluctant
  • Risk sharing by SG [State Govt] & AIC [Agriculture Insurance Company]
  • If claims < 80% of gross premium: profits to be shared with SG
  • If claims > 110%, state shared add'l burden

---

#Seeds (Page 4)

• Seed quality — MCI for 20–25% of crop prod°
• Low seed replace° ratio (no)
• Low quality
• Subsidised pvt (can on seed pricing) IPR [Intellectual Property Rights] issues
• Gaps in infra
• REID issues

#Solutions for Seeds

• ® [private sector]
  • Seed village banks
  • Infra
  • Pvt sector
  • Regulation
  • 3P quality centre system
  • Research?
  • → Not Seed Exporter

---

#Fertilizers — 3% Subsidy Bill (Page 4)

• Indiscriminate use
  • Faulty govt policy
  • No knowledge
• Organic manure↓
• Urea dominated
• Fiscal subsidies — 8nd [and] (after food°)
• Diversion of subsidy → urea = [illegible 450?]
• Import reliance

#SO? (Page 4)

• Debarise urea imports
• NBS [Nutrient Based Subsidy], SHC, Neem coated
• DBTisation of subsidy
• Organic
• Policy & Regulation awareness

---

#Pesticides — 15–85% Losses due to Pest (Page 4)

• Water impact — eg Endosulfan poisoning in Kasaragod due to pest residue
• Aerial spraying on cashew plants
• Resistance
• Biopen? [illegible]
• No tech access — Drift nozzle, spray shields
• SO? Pesticide Mgmt Bill 2020
  • IPM
  • Awareness
  • Organic farms?
  • MH → US → prime → paddy → cotton
  • Anup Verma E° — 66 [illegible] review

---

#Irrigation — 70% of Total Input Cost (Page 4)

• Water scarcity
• ↑ dd [demand] due to horti / pvt / meat
• Large area w/ rainfed
• Regional concentration
• Low WUE — uses 2–3 times more water vis-à-vis China
• Brazil
• → Net exporter of wtr [water] (Virtual Water)

#Problems

• Less usage of more eff° [efficient] micro irrig° system
• Depleting groundwater (269 apptt [districts] using agri)

#SO? [Solutions]

• Expand area (Har Khet Ko Pani)
• Focus on deprived regions (Budget 2019 → ₹2600 cr for 96 such dist.)
• Water harvesting & night [illegible]
• Tech + mntse [moisture] cropping pattern + SRI + water prot°
• Participatory IR. Mgmt & Water Use ₹300°
• AIBP [Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme]
• 4 NAT Water Mission

---

#Technology (Page 4)

1. GM crops — Bt cotton & use of insecticide by 35% (↓ in AP [Andhra Pradesh]/guj [Gujarat])
2. Precision farming
3. GRI — s prod° by 30–35% — eg TN [Tamil Nadu], Bihar, Tripura
4. GIS mapping
5. Soil testing
6. Resource conserv° tech like Zero tillage, Raised bed planting
7. Hi tech horti — poly-houses & RTA [illegible]

---

#MSP (Minimum Support Price) (Page 5)

• Few crops (only 0.46% of [illegible]) most produced)
• Few regions — 35–40%: rice & wheat procured in PB [Punjab]/HR [Haryana]
• Fuelling inflation
• Rising MSP — ↑ in buffer supply → S market [Supply side], → mkt price ↑
• Open ended procurement
• ↑ prices of perishable is ↑ negligible
• Food subsidy bill
• ↓ to awareness (only SOI know about it) → corruption
• eg PM/ARSHA [illegible]
  • PPSS [illegible]
  • PDPS [Price Deficiency Payment System]
  • PPSS — to lead to assured cropping pattern & nutritional security

#FCI (1964–65 MOCA) (Page 5)

• MSP procurement

• PDS [Public Distribution System]

• Buffer stock

• ⊕ Max offered price at MSP

• Open ended → 3x buffer stock

• Off budget bouncings

  • No auto liquid° [liquidation]
  • On mkt/mg target [meeting target]
  • Benefit inventory mgmt system

---

#PDS (Public Distribution System) (Page 5)

• Leakages & error [inclusion error = 25+%, exclusion = 61%] (as per CAG)
• FCI storage capacity
• Quality
• Lost items & nutritional size
• Int° challenges & WTO
• Mobility (ONORC) [One Nation One Ration Card]
• eg: TN — Uni PDS, Chhg [Chhattisgarh] — ePDS, MndPDS
• → UBI [Universal Basic Income], DBT [Direct Benefit Transfer], Food coupons (long trail)

---

#Shantakumar Ki [Committee] (Page 5)

• ↓ DBT to save 30k cr/year
• 4 beneficiaries = 40% ↑
• Raise supply = ↑ 1 kg/person
• Focus E & NE + oilseeds, pulses
• Food MIS [Management Information System]
• ↓ silos → CAP (×)

---

#Agri Marketing (Page 5)

• Mkt fragmentation°
• ↑↑ Unresisted move
• Discourage direct selling
• Exploit by intermediaries
• High incidence of mkt charges
• Pol corruption
• High wastage in SS chain
• ↑↑ infra in mkt
• High mktg cost

#Model APLM Act, 2017 (Page 5)

• ENPM
• EMRE
• [40–50% achieved off]
• off — PB [Punjab] Wheat Procurement Crisis 2016 ●

---

#Ashok Gulati (Page 5)

#Pricing Policy → Income Policy

• PDS
• Buffer stock
• ⊕ Max offered price at MSP
• Open ended → 3x buffer stock
• Off budget bouncings

---

#Food Processing (Page 5)

• 1.93 mn employed
• NITI say 40,000 cr worth food in India
• TN — own policy recently
• Only 8% fruits & veg — processed
  • 1% meat
  • 8% marine
• 75% of alcohol & energy°
• 90% of 1s cold storage store potatoes
• MOFI — 1988, 11th & 12th FYP
• 1001 FDI, AEZs
• ↑ on global food map
• "World's Food Factory"

---

#Constraints in Modernizing Agriculture — Flowchart (Page 6)

• Constraints in Modernizing Agriculture [central box]:

  • Affordability
    • 85% small & marginal farmers
    • IPP issues
    • Huge skill gap
  • Outdated tech
  • Absence of adequate capital
  • Low scale constraint
  • Multiple info sources

• Mattling Farm Income — Ashok Dalwai [inner table]:

  • Crop onfisity [crop intensity]
  • Non farm income
  • Rise
  • Livestock (prod°?)
  • ↑ crop output?
  • ↑ in real prices
  • Ovt prod°?

---

#Value Chain (Page 6)

• Village level procurement
• Link production to processing
• Warehouse upgradation

#Agri Value Chain — Way Forward (Circular Diagram) (Page 6)

• Three-segment circle diagram:
  • Value Chain (left segment)
  • Rural Entrepreneurs (top-right segment)
  • Export Enablers (bottom segment)
  • Centre label: Agri value chain-way forward
• Rural roads maintained by women SHGs [Self Help Groups]
• Incentive feeder separation
• Pvt invt [investment] in farm machines
• Export oriented clusters
• ↑ no. of testing labs
• Regulation to ↓ rejection rate

#For DBT

• C + S + D + Block + GP [Gram Panchayat]
• Mdn DBT
• C → ₹ [illegible]

---

#Public Stocks Flow Diagram (Page 6)

• Procurement ← Domestic Market (Procurement Price) → Public Stocks →
  • Domestic Market @ Market Price
  • @ Subsidised Price
  • International Market @ Export Price
  • → Release
• ⊕ Automatic liquidation of buffer stock on reaching target

---

#Micro-irrigation (Page 7)

• Drip / Sprinkler / Rain gun

#Advantages (+)

• WUE [Water Use Efficiency]
• Flexible
• Weeds / pests / fertilisers & energy eff°
• Cost saving
• New crop add°
• Add'al income (Integrate with solar)

#Disadvantages (−)

• High initial invt
• Used to few areas in MH [Maharashtra], AP [Andhra Pradesh], RJ [Rajasthan], KN [Karnataka], GUJ [Gujarat]
• (78% in 5 states)
• ↓↓ awareness
• Power subsidy discourages ↑

→ PMKSY [Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana]

---

#Conservation Agriculture — Circular Diagram (Page 7)

• Conservation Agriculture (centre label)
• Three components in cyclic diagram:
  • Permanent Soil Cover (Mulching) [top box]
  • Zero Tillage [bottom-left box]
  • Crop Diversify° [bottom-right box]

---

#Dryland Agri (Page 7)

• 60% net cultivated area

• 40% of total prod°

• 60% livestock population

• Rain < 75 cm

• → Watershed mgmt, Micro irrig°, Mulching, Wind breaks, Weed control

• eg: Hiware Bazar (MH) [Maharashrta]

#Dryland Agri Venn / Circle Diagram

• Dryland agri (top label)
• Left segment: Water & soil mgmt
• Right segment: No tillage, Mulching, Crop diversity°
• Bottom label: Climate smart agri / Conserv° agri

---

#Doubling Farm Income (Page 7)

• Within agri:
  • [sub-bullets illegible — lines indicated]
• Outside agri:
  • [sub-bullets illegible — lines indicated]

---

#Agrarian Distress — India Map (Page 7)

• Agrarian Distress ® [map of India with regional annotations]:
  • Hills: Poor modern, Crop diversify°
  • Northern Plains: Faulty agri, Poor mech°
  • Deccan/Coastal [bottom half — drought prone]
  • NER [North East Region]: Mkt access, Schemes benefits
  • Desert: No mixed farming, Climate change, Poor RUE (land & water)

---

#Different Options for Different Regions — India Map (Page 7)

• Doubling Farm Income:
  • Within agri [arrows down]
  • Outside agri [arrows down]
• Different options for diff regions [India map with labels]:
  • NE/North: Agro-Tourism, Floriculture
  • East: Horticulture
  • Central/West: Animal Husbandry
  • Coast: Fisheries
  • South: Food Processing
• eg: Taka Kisan Kendra (TKK) for precision farming in rural areas

---

#Pulses Production (Page 8)

#India Map — Pulses Prod° (Page 8)

• Top states:
  • RJ [Rajasthan]: Chickpea, Moong, Urad
  • UP: Lentil, Chickpea, Urad, Pigeon Pea
  • MH [Maharashtra]: Moong, Urad, Chickpea
  • MP [Madhya Pradesh]: Arhar, Urad, Moong, Lentil
  • KN [Karnataka]: Pigeon Pea, Chickpea, Urad

#Top States in Pulses Prod°

• Largest producer = 25% — } FAO
• Consumer = 27% — } 112 mn [mn tonnes?]
• Importer = 14%

#Bar Charts — ↑ in Pulses Prod° & ↑ in Rice Prod° (Page 8)

Crop	1950	2018
Pulses	8.4 mn [tonnes]	24 mn
Rice	20.5 mn	112 mn

---

#In India, Livestock Wealth is More Equitably Distributed than Land (Page 8)

• 70% of livelihood → 67% of small market & marginal farms
• Its growth has more potential to ↓ poverty, ↓ inequality, being inclusive growth

---

#Oilseeds (Page 8)

• SS [Supply-Side] gap = 13 mn tonnes
• 56% dd [demand] from imports

#Major Imports:

• Argentina & Brazil: Soya — arid conditions, climate change, dams?
• Malaysia & Indonesia: Palm — El Nino, → domestic biofuel prod°, → labour shortage
• Russia & Ukraine: Sunflower (dry cond°)

#NMOE-OP [National Mission on Oilseeds & Oil Palm] (+) (Page 8)

• → CSS [Centrally Sponsored Scheme] (80:20)
• → Focus on NE & AmN [Andaman & Nicobar] (geog factors)
• → VDF
• → 884% cr budget by Centre
• → Aim = 6.5 L ha by 2025 & OP = 11.26 tonnes
• Focus

#For Farmers | Inputs

• Price assurance | Planting material
• VGF [Viability Gap Funding] | Seed garden
• Sumine? [illegible] | ₹48,280/plant for restoration [SMVM 2037?]

#For Industries

• ↓ 5cr for 5mt/ha unit

#Additional (Page 8)

• 2080–21 → 1251 tonnes of oilseed oil
• Imported, 56% → Oil palm
• → 8.9 L ha potential for OP (ICAR)
• → Requires less water

#SO?

• MSP
• CC [Climate Change]
• HYV [High Yielding Varieties]
• Salinity
• Poor drainage — VRD mt. Bengal
• GR 2.0, PM ARSHA, 2x income

---

#Farm Problems Flowchart (Page 9)

• Farm Problems [header box]
• Flow (top to bottom, blue boxes, red feedback arrows):
  1. Inputs
  2. Crop on Farm
  3. Production
  4. Income / Processing
  5. Income
• Red arrows pointing left/back at each stage = problem/leakage points

---

#Mega Food Park — Flowchart (Page 9)

• Mega Food Park [header box]
• Three upstream input types:
  • Farmer Groups → (C) [collection centres] → PPC [Primary Processing Centre]
  • Individual Farmers → (C)(C)(C) → PPC
  • SHGs [Self Help Groups] → (C)(C)(C) → PPC
• All three PPCs → Mega Food Park (central circle)
• Outputs:
  • → Value Added Products → Export / Domestic mkt
  • → Fresh Products → Domestic Sale
• © = Collection centres
• PPC = Primary Processing Centres
• "Future belongs to nations with grains, not guns — MS Swaminathan"

---

#Land Leasing (Page 9)

• Farmer A — Lease agri land — written contract → Farmer B
  • → Rent on land
  • → No forced eviction
  • → Take bank loans & shut [initiate?]
  • → Migrate to more gainful empl°

#Benefits to Economy

• Consol° of land
• Disguised unempl° ↓
• Agri prod° ↑
• Occupational mobility
• Swasthi Dhara, Khet Hara [scheme name?]

---

#ZBNF — Zero Budget Natural Farming (Page 9)

• ZBNF [Zero Budget Natural Farming] — diamond diagram:
  • Top: Jivamruta (soil microbes)
  • Left: Bijamitra (coating seeds) [Bijamitre]
  • Bottom: Achadare (Mulching)
  • Right: Whapasa (aeration)
  • Centre: Zero ® Organic / Natural Farming
• = B2B [Business to Business] — Basa? [illegible]
• "A tech for future with trad° wisdom"

---

#PMFBY — Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (Page 9)

• CNG — 37% didn't know about scheme
• 50% dist = 50% claims
• 4 pvt co. recently opted out due to low profitability (CC ↑)
• [SHC] → 22.5 cr cards distrib°
  • Fertiliser = ↓ by 10%
  • Yield = ↑ by 6%
  • Testing capacity (pa) = ↑3.5 cr [illegible suffix]
• 36% of 1s farmers are landless

---

#Mehlink Jafri, AIR 17 [Signature / Topper Credit] (Page 9)

---

#Examples (EP) — Best Practice Cases

1. Rice fish culture — Kerala
2. Pani Bachao, Paisa Kamao — PB [Punjab]
3. IPM [Integrated Pest Management] against pink bollworm — Matsya Mitra, Jharkhand
4. Strawberry cultivation — Meghalaya
5. Yantradoot village — CHC [Custom Hiring Centre] in model villages in MP
6. Mission Kakatiya — TL [Telangana], Bhungoo, Gujarat
7. Pani Panchayat — Odisha [Rainwater Mgmt]
8. Hiware Bazar — MH — Watershed Mgmt [underlined]
9. [illegible]
10. Artificial glaciers — Ladakh

• NITI — yield gaps due to:
  1. Gap b/w best scientific practices & best field practices
  2. Gap b/w best field practices & avg farmer
• ARYA, Integrated Farm Mgmt
• 9.75 cr farmers to get over ₹500 u/ PM-KISAN [Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi]

---

#Artificial Intelligence (AI)

• Definition / framing: when a computer mimics human [intelligence]
• AI → 5I characteristics:
  • Inclusiveness
  • Indian
  • Innovation
  • Smt [Smart]
  • Int'l coop [International cooperation]
  • (by PM Modi)
• #9 in AI specialisms [India's global ranking]
• CBSE: AI as an elective subject in IX [Class 9]
• IIT-H [IIT Hyderabad]: full-fledged B.Tech in AI
• Industry–academia eg IBM's Blue Planet Project
  • eg: Sun, key driven cars
  • Fn: friend suggestions, pop-ups, Alexa, kanalloot [Kana lloot]

#AI Sense–Comprehend–Act Framework

• Sense → input perception
• Comprehend → understanding
• Act → action/decision
  • Machine Learning [ML]
  • Expert Systems [ES]
• AI / ML / DL [Deep Learning] — nested circles (AI outermost, DL innermost)

#Best Practices / Applications of AI

• Alexa lectures in rural areas
• Odisha: SATARK – DM [Disaster Management] assistance
• Amazon: Inventory management
• Odisha: Digi Dispensary
• Google: DeepMind
• Telemedicine: IBM Watson
• SUFACE [SUFACE platform]: Judiciary

#AI Policy / Governance

• NITI Aayog: National Programme on AI
• AIRAWAT [AI Research Analytics and Knowledge Assimilation Platform] / cloud computing
• OECD Principles on AI
• Gyaan Dhaam [Knowledge hub]:
  • Knowledge representation
  • Analytics to real discovery
  • Chai Dhaam: Roadmap for Tech in India
  • Kaushalya Dhaam [Skills hub]: Nurture human capability, upskilling of youth
• Samvad Nigadhaam [Dialogue hub]:
  • Five transition
  • Based on social equity
  • Inclusive
• "Rise of full AI could spell the end of human race" — S. Hawking

---

#5G

• 800 towers connected by machine on optical fibre
• AI facilitated service
• 3V: volume of big data depends on 5G
  • Volume, Velocity, Variety
• 1 billion digital economy
• 5G hackathons
• Do Now [DoNo – Telecom initiative]
• Collab with Ericsson, Nokia

#4G vs 5G Comparison

Parameter	4G	5G
Connection	4L/km² [400,000 per km²]	10L/km² [1,000,000 per km²]
Speed	1000 Mbps – 1 Gbps	10–20 Gbps
Latency	50 ms	1 ms

#Mobile Generations Timeline

Generation	Year	Key Feature
1G	1979	Analog — voice only → calls
2G	1991	Digital — text; Voice + Data: GPRS, SMS, Email
3G	1998	Wireless net — Digital voice, Data–HSPA; V-call [video call]
4G	2008	Cloud, IP, broadband — Voice + Data–LTE; HD videos
5G	2021	Ultr [Ultra] — [sub-ms latency, massive IoT]

---

#Quantum Technology

• Google Sycamore [quantum processor]
• DST: QUEST [Quantum Enabled Science and Technology programme]
• NM-QTA [National Mission on Quantum Technologies & Applications] @ Budget 2020 → ₹8000 Cr, 5 years
• Quantum Key Distribution [QKD] tech – DRDO
• Micius satellite of China
  • None in India
  • MST's NSM-70 [National Supercomputing Mission] — supreme comp [supercomputing]

---

#Darknet

• "Underworld of the Internet"
• eg: TOR [The Onion Router] during Arab Spring
• eg: Zomato ethical hacking

• Surface web — 5% [~5%]: Google, Wikipedia
• Deep web — ~95%: Cloud storage, research articles
• Dark web — [subset of deep]: TOR, I2P
  • Description: "underworld of the internet"

---

#Industrial Revolution 4.0 (IR 4.0)

• IR 4.0 = or [alternative framing as] a bar chart of rising productivity
• Stage 1 → Power/Steam engine
• Stage 2 → Mass production/assembly
• Stage 3 → Computers & automation
• Stage 4 → Cyber-physical systems / AI / Robotics
• South Korean city of Sangdi uses IoT to handle traffic problem, save water, energy & maintain environment
• Centre for IR 4.0 (WEF) — 4th in world [India hosts one]

---

#Electric Vehicles (EV)

• 0.06% market share in India
• 32% in Norway
• 30% of new sales by 2030 [India's target]
• NEMMP [National Electric Mobility Mission Plan] & FAME 2.0
• Budget 2019–20 → GST @ 5%
• NITI [Aayog]: time-bound, market-driven approach
• Upstream [approach]: Tier 2 / Tier 3 cities & urban parts
• Power triangle → "Nanopower" [emerging term]

---

#5G (page 2 additional)

• Nanospaceship [nano-scale satellite concept]
• C of E [Centre of Excellence]: IIT B, IISc
• BRI [Bilateral Initiative]: ₹3000 pappu in nanoscience
• Nanomission, 2007

---

#Nanotechnology

"Plenty of room at the bottom" — Richard Feynman

• Scale: 1–200 nm
• Approach:
  • Bottom Up [assembly from atoms]
  • Top Down [miniaturization from bulk]
  • 30 mg [scale of nanoparticle quantities]
• Applications:
  • Nano robots for root canal (#54 [importance rank])
  • Nano catheters for eye surgery
  • Nano sponges (toxin from blood)
  • Nanopores for eff [efficient] DNA sequencing
  • Silver np [nanoparticles] = anti-properties
  • Nutraceutical — nutrient delivery
  • Nano urea by IFFCO
  • Gold np → nano-medicines
  • Zinc oxide np → sunscreens
  • Nano chips = 1 to 10 pu [transistors] per inch — nanosized
  • Nano solar cells — graphene
  • Carbon [nano]tubes — miracle building blocks
  • Non-filter [water] purification
• Compulsory licensing eg: Nexavir [Nexavar — Novartis/Bayer drug]
• Biopiracy eg Monsanto & Melon
  • Piracy — DU Photocopy case
  • Evergreening — Sec 3d — Novartis case
• Patent prosecution highway with Japan

#Carbon Nanotube Diagram

• Hollow cylindrical tube of carbon atoms in hexagonal lattice
• Labelled: "carbon nanotube — Sundar [Pichai connection/reference]"

---

#Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)

• Art 27 of UDHR [Universal Declaration of Human Rights]
• Nat'l IPR Policy, 2016 – "Creative India, Innovative India"
• L2Pro [Law to protect] — relaxed about IPR
• Scheme (IPR Scheme): [CIPAM – Cell for IPR Promotion and Management]
• GII Rank [Global Innovation Index]:

• 2015: [~81st rank] | 2021: [46th rank] — rising bar (visual shown)
• Patent density comparisons:
  • US → 1 patent for every 6,000 people
  • China → every 25,000 people
  • India → 1 for 600,000 people
  • → 600 times bigger opportunity [India's potential]

#IPR Issues

• Compulsory licensing eg: Nexavar, Melon
• Biopiracy eg Monsanto
  • Piracy — DU Photocopy case
  • Evergreening — Sec 3d — Novartis case
• Patent prosecution highway with Japan
• Pepsico & Guj [Gujarat] farmers [potato variety IP case]

#Patent Pool

• Holders (A, B, C circles) ←→ Licensees (D, E, F circles)
  • A → Licenses → D
  • B → Sub-license → E
  • C → Royalties ← fees ← F
  • Intersection = Patent Pool
• eg: Medicine Patent Pool framed in [Geneva] for cheap drugs for HIV/TB/Hep C

---

#Biotech

• Four colours:
  • Red (Medical)
  • Green [agriculture]
  • Blue [marine]
  • White [Industrial]
• 3% share in global BT [Biotech] industry
• Nat'l BT Dev't Strategy 2015–20
• Top #2 biotech destination in Asia; #12 in world
• DBT [Dept of Biotechnology] WIMST in 1986
• ₹30 bn [India's biotech industry]
  • 4th largest → [will be] 2nd in biotech → expected to grow to $150 bn by 2025

---

#Blockchain Technology

"Decentralized, distributed ledger that records transactions across computer networks"

• Step 1: A wants to send money to B → Transaction represented as a block
• Step 2: Block broadcast on network (shown in network diagram)
• Step 3: Block added, transaction approved, verified by all
• Step 4: B receives money from A

• Block → broadcast on network → verified by all nodes → added to chain

#Properties of Blockchain

• Anonymity
• Crypto-based security
• Immutability
• MCT [Multi-party Consensus Technology]
• Distributed ownership
• Decentralised network [N/w]

#Advantages of Blockchain

• Value addition
• Governance
• No middlemen = Transaction cost ↓
• Protection from fraud(s)
• Business process improvement
• 10% GDP stored in blockchain [WEF estimate]
• Transparency

#Applications

• APPs — Land records, certificates, Health ID, pension distribution, subsidy, bank ledgers, microfinance/mgmt
• NF → WEF → Presidio Principles on Blockchain / Bill of Rights

#Challenges

• Speed & efficiency
• Additivity [scalability issues] in finance
• Middleman dilemma
• Transaction cost ↓ [can be double-edged]
• Data localisation / traceability
• Less value [GP will be] in BC by 25% [adoption lag] — WEF
• Transparency (↓ privacy concern)
• Scalability
• Tech
• Privacy
• Data localisation
• Skills
• Cybersecurity
• Parallel economy

---

#Deep Sea Mission

• ISA Permission [International Seabed Authority]
• ₹8000 Cr / ~15,000 km² central [OR] exploration
• Cost (→) of scaling [roughly]:
  • PPM [Parts Per Million]
  • Research on CC [Climate Change] & gulf [gulf streams]
  • DM [Disaster Management]: Tsunami, PD
  • Med [Medicine]: drugs / ocean resources
  • CNT [Carbon Nanotube extraction]
• Manned submersible: 6000 m depth
• Powered by solar energy
• Submersible vehicle: 6000 m depth
• ₹4000 Cr [budget]
• Collab: ISRO / DST / MoES [Ministry of Earth Sciences] / DRDO / ICAR etc.
• Samudrayaan Mission
• NF → WEF → Presidio Principles / the Bill of Rights [mentioned alongside blockchain]
• Health ID, pension distribution [blockchain application]

---

#Artificial Intelligence (detailed — page 4)

#AI Components Tree (Sense–Comprehend–Act)

• Sense: Input — sight, sound
• Comprehend:
  • Language processing
  • Knowledge representation
• Act:
  • Machine Learning [ML]
  • Expert Systems [ES]
• AI / ML / DL — concentric circles [AI > ML > DL]
• Comp vision [Computer Vision]
• Audio processing

#3D Printing [Additive Manufacturing — AMI]

• 3D CAD → STL [Stereo Lithography file] → Slicing → separate layers
• 3D object → printer → part(s) → lay-in-space to form tool path
• AMI [Additive Manufacturing India]

#Optical Fibre

• Core → index ↓ [lower refractive index cladding surrounds]
• Cladding — [higher refractive index core]
• Plastic coating [outer jacket]
• Total internal reflection → ray of light propagates
• Optical fibre = transmission of light (not electricity)

---

#SARS-CoV-2 Structure

• Nucleocapsid protein — surrounds genetic material
• RNA — genetic material (single-stranded)
• Spike protein — outer projections (binds ACE2 receptors)
• Envelope — lipid bilayer outer shell
• SARS-CoV-2 labelled with tick [important]
• Patents → Patent Pools [for vaccine/drug access]

---

#Space Technology (page 4 & 5)

#ISRO Timeline

• 1962 — INCOSPAR [Indian National Committee for Space Research]
• 1969 — ISRO [Indian Space Research Organisation]
• 1972 — DOS [Department of Space]
• 1975 — Aryabhata [first Indian satellite]
• 1980 — Rohini [first indigenously launched satellite]
• 1993 — PSLV [Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle]
• 2013 — GSLV [Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle]

#Science & Social Responsibility

• # Scientific social responsibility [note on margins]

#Space Org Structure

• DOS [Dept of Space]
  • → ISRO [Indian Space Research Organisation]
    • → Antrix [commercial arm]
    • • → NSIL [NewSpace India Ltd] (dashed = new)
  • → INSPACE [Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre]

#Key Space Facts

• ISRO = 2% [~2%] share in global space budget
• Budget = ~₹13,000 Cr
• → Space Tech Park
• → Outsourced 27 satellites manufacturing to private companies
• US → Falcon of SpaceX
• NASA's "Tipping Point" programme for partnership with private companies

#Satellite-Based Internet

• Satellite → NCC Hub → Satellite Router → VoIP / Video / user devices
• Internet → NCC Hub [uplink] → Satellite → downlink to users
• Ajeeb [remarkable] — marked as [negative opinion: X]

#Lagrange Points

• Sun — L1 — Earth on horizontal axis
• L2 — beyond Earth (same orbital path)
• L3 — opposite side of Sun
• L4 — 60° ahead of Earth in orbit
• L5 — 60° behind Earth in orbit
• Aditya L1 → labelled with dashed line to L5 [marked with red circle]
  • Note: Aditya-L1 is actually going to L1 — the notes mark L5 with a red circle (Aditya positioned near L1 on axis)

#Chandrayan 2 & Ritu Karidhal

• Ritu Karidhal — Chandrayan 2 Director ("Rocket Woman")
• Agnii VI [Agni VI missile — Women in Science connection]

---

#Women in Science

• 1/7 of 4.8 Lakh scientists in India are women
• 81% ISRO staff
• DISHA: KIRAN, Srushti, MANAC etc. [women scientist programmes]
• eg: Tessy Thomas — Missile woman (Agni VI)

---

#One Health Approach

• 65% of contagious diseases from animals (zoonotic)
• Pop [Population] in India:
  • Humans — 131 Cr
  • Livestock — 125 Cr
  • But only 65,000 vet [veterinary] institutions
• Three overlapping circles: Animal + Human + Environment → One Health Approach (intersection)

---

#Pharma / Healthcare

• ₹41 bn today → ₹120 bn by 2030 [ES 2020]
• #3 by volume
• #14 by value
• Pharmacy of the world
• Global share: 3.5% (1947) → [growing] (2020)
• 20% of all generic drugs
• 50% of vaccines
• 80% of AIDS drugs
• 68% API [Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient] from China
• 100% FDI in greenfield [pharma]
• 100 Cr → Med [Medical] Device Park
• 1000 Cr → Bulk Drugs Park
• PLIs @5% [Production Linked Incentive scheme]

---

#Big Data

• CAG BD [Big Data] Policy, 2016
• 3 Vs: Volume, Velocity, Variety
• Data Lake: SEBI [Securities & Exchange Board of India] / NHAI [National Highways Authority of India]
• Project Insight of IT Dept [Income Tax Dept's big data project]
• PSBN [ES 2020] — NDAP [National Data and Analytics Platform] by NITI [Aayog]

---

#Space (Aditya-L1 / Defence transition page)

• Aditya L1 → L5 [circled, dashed trajectory to L1 Lagrange point] — India's solar observatory mission

---

#Defence Technology

#Defence Timeline

• 1958 — DRDO [Defence Research & Development Organisation] established
• 1960s — USSR Defence ties
• 1980s — IGMDP [Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme]
• 1990s — Brahmos JV [Joint Venture — India-Russia]

#Key Defence Statistics

• N 3.1% of GDP (2.9% actual) [defence spending]
• 2nd largest arms importer (SIPRA [SIPRI])
• 0.2% share in exports (#24 in world)

#Defence Imports Pie Chart

• Russia — 68%
• Israel — 7%
• US — 14%
• Others — 11%
• Caption: Defence Imports

#Problems in Defence

• (-) Dominance of PSUs [Public Sector Undertakings]
• (-) Low spending
• (-) Red tape
• (-) Defence planning [poor strategic planning]

---

#Defence Reforms (page 6)

#Steps Taken

• → 209 items in the Indigenisation list of import embargo
• → 74% FDI [in defence]
• → DAP 2020 ↑ indigenous content
• → Sep [Separate] capital procurement budget from 2021
• → IDEX [iDEX — Innovations for Defence Excellence] platform
• → Defence corridors (UP, TN) [Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu]
• → AI-based interventions like EYESIRA [AI targeting/surveillance]
• → Replacing OFB [Ordnance Factory Board] with 7 new PSUs

#DAP 2020 [Defence Acquisition Procedure]

• List of weapons/platforms for import ban
• New category of Buy (Global — Mfr in India)
• Request for Info [RFI] to explore willingness of prospective foreign vendors
• Rev [Revision] in offset policy — removed for 1G & G2G [Government-to-Government] deals, single vendor contracts
• Project Mgmt Unit [PMU]
• Simplification of trial procedures
• Leasing — as new category for acquisition
• Atmanirbhar [Bharat — self-reliance in defence]

#Defence Procurement Categories Table

Category	DAP 2016	2020
1) Buy (Indian – IDDM [Indigenous Design, Development & Manufacture])	Min 40%	50%
2) Buy (Indian)	40%	Indigenous design, otherwise 60%
3) Buy & Make (Indian)	50% of make	50% of make
4) Buy (Global – Mfr in India)	—	50% of Buy & Make
5) Buy (Global)	—	30% for Indian vendors

#Defence Spending

• 3rd largest military spender (~$73 bn USD)
• 4/3rd [ratio]: Capital vs Revenue
• 50% spent on foreign suppliers
• → 25 Lac DMF [Defence Manufacturing Fund] by 15th FC [Finance Commission]
• → SRIJAN portal [indigenisation portal]

---

#NFT (Non-Fungible Token)

• Wazir X [Indian crypto exchange] recently launched NFT marketplace for Indian artists
• = Unique proof of ownership of digital asset based on blockchain tech
• Unique, digitally rare, tradable — but not divisible
• (+) Ownership → eg: Jack Dorsey's Tweet
• → Authenticity
• → IPR protection
• → Monetization

#NFT Issues

• ↑ ML [Machine Learning / Money Laundering — context: money laundering]
• ← Notes friendly [easy to use/record]
• → No legal protection for frauds
• ↓ Unclear tax regime

---

#Genome Sequencing

• IndiGen Project — 1000 Indians [sequenced]
• (+) Understand variations / diversity
• Epidemiology of genetic diseases
• Carrier screening
• Pharmacogenetic tests
• Disease prevention & treatment
• Issues (genome sequencing):
  • (-) Tech
  • (-) Ethical
  • (-) Financial
  • (-) Legal — Data Privacy Bill [pending legislation]
  • (-) Cyber security
  • (design-STL: se-60%?) [illegible marginal note]

---

#Satellite-Based Internet (additional detail)

• Ajeeb [marked with X — negative note by topper]
• Net → NCC [Network Control Centre] Hub → Satellite → Satellite Router → user devices [VoIP, Video, computers]

---

#Blockchain (Advantages box — right column p3)

• Value addition
• Governance
• No middle [men] = Transaction [cost down]
• Protection from fraud(s)
• Business process improvement
• [10% GDP] [stored/tracked via blockchain — WEF estimate]
• Stored [immutably]
• Transparency

---

#Patents / IPR (additional statistics)

• US → 1 patent for every 6,000 people
• China → every 25,000 people
• India → 1 for 600,000 people
• → 600 times bigger opportunity [for India to grow IP creation]

---

#Page 1 — Key Facts, Reports & Constitutional Provisions

#Green GDP

• Green GDP — concept of factoring environmental costs into GDP calculations

#UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2020–30)

• UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2020–30)
• 8–4% land, 7–8% of species [covered / targeted]

#Invasive Species

• 4 phenotypic plasticity — alter growth form to suit conditions
• 12° pip — [illegible abbreviation] IAS [Invasive Alien Species] monitoring system
• Global IAS program
• 461 migratory birds in India
• GBO [Global Biodiversity Outlook] — 30×30 target — protect 30% of planet by 2030
• PMF [illegible] — proceed of INBT [illegible] to be w/w $3 and $33 billion/year globally
• During 2014–17, eastern states lost 1052 lives to elephants
• Conflict → coexistence
• SC upheld Madras HC order affirming animals' right of passage

#BIW 1973–2014 Shola Grasslands

• BIW [Biological Importance of Wetlands] 1973–2014, Shola grasslands ↑ by 66.7% [area increase]
• Polluter pays & Pay & Pollute approach

#UNESCO Report

• UNESCO Report [on water/education — context unclear]
• 1 in 3 is largest extractor of GW [groundwater]
• 751 MHH [million households] don't have drinking water at home
• 8(4?) rural HHs = no piped water
• 1 in 3 — water is contaminated
• By 2030, dd = [demand equals] 2× supply
• Loss of 6(%) of GDP

#Bon Bella Faura [Buen Vivir] — checks excessive acquisition & greed in Sundarbans

#Gadavarman Judgement of SC

• Gadavarman Judgement of SC — expanded scope of forest concern (1996)
• SC ordered cuts of CAMPA [Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management & Planning Authority] in 2001

#Manita Harath [illegible] 71–33+ [forests]

#Art. 21 (Right to Healthy Environment)

• Art. 21 — Right to healthy environment
• AURA — state shall protect & improve environment
• [Reference to Art. 48-A] — Directive: state shall protect & improve environment

#Globally, Ini Poli Koli

• Globally, Ini Poli [Air] Koli [Pollution?] kills 60 people every hour or 13 every minute
• Acc to INOEFCC [illegible], India will receive ₹11 billion every year from 2030–50 for effective climate action

#State of India's Environment 2019

• State of India's Environment 2019 [report highlights]:
  • 30% land degraded
  • 281 districts in plan 9 — states
  • Lost [1.6 mn ha] of forest cover since 2000
  • SDG 15 — land degraded neutral / desert

#EPI 2020 — 168th rank [out of countries]

#Key Quotes

• "What we are doing to the forests is but a mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves" — MK Gandhi
• "Ecology is permanent economy" — Sunderlal Bahuguna

#Green Skill Debt

• India generates 9.46 [mt?] (10mn tonnes) of plastic waste every year — [CPCB]
  • 60(%) collected & [stored / covered in red]
  • 16(%) stored in [illegible]
  • 40(%) recycled / sent to end
• Total 782 jobs (?), 10% recycled
• Swata Cooling Action Plan (2021–31)

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#Page 2 — Land Degradation: Causes, Effects, Impacts

#Causes of Land Degradation

• Deforest[ation]
• Overpopulation
• Pollution
• Natural disasters
• CC [Climate Change]
• Urban
• Industrial [with sub-note: 4 @ [symbol]]
• Agriculture
• Overgrazing
• Mining
• Hydropower projects / dev[elopment] projects
• IAS [Invasive Alien Species]
• Tourism
• Land use change @
• Road construction

#Effects of Land Degradation

• Human health
• Biod[iversity] loss
• Ozone
• Tourism
• CC [Climate Change]
• Poverty / eco effects
• Land degradation
• Food insecurity
• Water crisis — river, ecosystem
• Migration (pol[itical])
• Soil infertility
• ↑ Hazards
• Human wildlife conflict
• SLR [Sea Level Rise] / ocean acid[ification]
• Threatens livelihood

#Impact on [Biodiversity / Ecosystems]

• → Soil
• → Oceans
• → Ecosystem → marine / terrestrial / agro
• → Biod[iversity]
• → Atm[osphere]
• → Humans
• → Microorg[anisms]

#World Bank Report

• WB report shows that the world will lose 18% of GDP due to CC [Climate Change]

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#Page 3 — Climate Change: India's Response, Pollution & Miscellaneous

#Climate-Smart PPP [Public Private Partnership]

• Climate-smart PPP
• Odisha Climate Action Plan (OCAP)
  • One of the first states to prepare a comprehensive SAPCC [State Action Plan on Climate Change]
• Mumbai CAP
• Gujarat CCAP
• CIS — Climate Info Services
• IPCC — Assessment of CC over India:
  • 0.5°C ↑ in avg T
  • 10 SC ↑ in IOR [Indian Ocean Region]
  • 15%↓ in glaciers in HKH [Hindu Kush Himalaya]
  • 6–11 ↑ in summer monsoon
  • Rainfall [illegible symbol] — Dec 4 [illegible]
  • 75°F ↑ in frequency of localized heavy rain events
  • ↑13–4 ↑ in area affected by drought
• Emission Gap Report, 2019:
  • I = 4/7% of global emi[ssions] (1st page?)
  • 3rd largest after US, China
• GRI8 approach — Green, Resilient & Inclusive Development
• Uttarakhand — 1st state to take into Ac [account] GEE while calculating GDP

#Greenpeace Report on Delhi Pollution

• USD [$1 bn to 13%] of Delhi's annual GDP
• 54,000 lives in 2020
• Justice Madan B. Lokur (retd. SC) GRAP, CAQM, SAFAR [Tree Policies] Red Light On, Gadi Off campaign, Wastepaper

#IUCN — 8mn tonne plastic waste ends up in oceans every year

• IUCN — 8mn tonne plastic waste ends up in oceans every year
• Acc. to UN, 9 out of 10 people on the planet breathe the polluted air
• Carbon-neutral mobility
• Agri & Livestock = 18(+)% of gross national emissions

#TNGoal — Cauvery Delta Region

• TNGoal — Cauvery Delta Region as a Protected Special Agri Zone
• Lakshadweep = organic UT

#SEA vs EIA

• SEA [Strategic Environmental Assessment] — makes long term, proactive decisions
• EIA [Environmental Impact Assessment] — project level, reactive
• Blending of 15% methanol in petrol will ↓ pollution by 33% & diesel replaced by methanol will ↓ by 80%

#Nature Based Solutions (NbS)

• Nature-based Solutions (NbS):
  • Mangrove bill
  • Reef restoration
  • Agroforestry

#Community Para[lels]

• Community para[lels]: Bishnoi of Raj[asthan], Soliya, GRT TR, Balga — Kanha

#Anthropocene / Age of Humans

• Anthropocene / Age of Humans (1900 onwards)

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#Page 4 — Nitrogen Cycle, ESZs, PA [Protected Areas], Landfills

#Nitrogen Cycle

• Nitrogen cycle — considered reactive when released from agri/biological waste
• N2 fixation (gas)
  • → N2 fix[ation]
  • → Ammonif[ication]
  • → Nitrif[ication]
  • → Denitrif[ication] (back to N2)
• N2 — the new carbon
• ↑ in [N2] concentration leading to:
  • Nutrient imbalance in trees
  • Hypoxia (low O₂) / anoxia (no O₂) → algal blooms
  • NO₃ contrib[utes] to PM 2.5 & ozone pollution
  • Respiratory diseases
  • Haze in winters
  • Soil leaching
  • Nitrates in GW → Blue baby [methemoglobinemia]
  • ↑ parasitic & infectious diseases
  • Poll[ution]
  • School shutdown
  • Loss of Biod[iversity]
  • ↑ health exp[enditure]

#UNEP 2019 Colombo Plan — Indian N Assessment (2019)

• 70% of total N2 emi from India
  • Agriculture: [illegible]%, [largest sector]
  • Burning: [illegible]%
  • Sources: [illegible]
• 51% of N, 4% So2 in the world
• 7% of CO₂

#ESZs [Eco-Sensitive Zones]

• ~10km around NP/WLS u/1986 Act
• By GoI based on:
  • Endemism
  • Eco vulnerability
  • Geomorph[ology]

Issues with ESZs

• Shock absorber
• Bs [Buffer zone] — actual conflict
• Forest depletion
• Regulatory, yet prohibitive
• Balance b/w env & dev[elopment]
• WG ecology [Working Group on Ecology]

VPA [Village Panchayat / Village Protection Area] issues

• Restricts land use &
• ↑% impact on [local] pop[ulation]
• Locals excluded from process
• C-B-T strategy already
• Against cultural models of conserv[ation]
• No quantifiable criteria
• Resistance by SG [State Government]

#Landfills

• FPCB: Delhi = 8700 tonnes SW/day
• HG of Ghazipur [landfill] is almost equal to Qutab Minar
• Incineration
• Composting
• Biorem[ediation] / biominig [biomining]

Not Eco-friendly [landfills]:

• Expensive
• Renewable material recovery
• Land reclaim of 3+ [illegible] years; 100 acres land
• Poll[ution] (soil/gw)

Issues:

• Degree of waste
• Longer specific conv[ersion time?]

#Concern → air pollution / gas pollution (leaching?) / [illegible] problems / fire hazards

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#Page 5 — Dams, FRA [Forest Rights Act], OSOWOG, Hydropower Challenges

#Dams

• 95% dams don't have emergency plan
• China > US > I [India]
• ↑ & ↓ in no. of dams
• ↑ WB = Rs 250mn — DRIP II [Dam Rehabilitation and Improvement Project]
• 2012 CSS — several sectors

Issues with Dams — Structural:

1. Structural — Ageing & forecasting system
2. Implement[ation]:
   • No monitoring
   • No trained manpower
   • No funds (DRMs?)
3. Envir[onmental]:
   • Flood risk
   • SLR [?]
   • Soil erosion
   • Species extinction
4. Social — [illegible] that dam [affects] 11 people … human displacement 11 people

• DHARMA Dam Safety Act 2019
• Inundation maps, DIA [Design Inspection Agency] collaboration

FRA 2006 vs FRA 2020 [comparison]:

FRA 2006	FRA 2020
No	Post-facto approval 20 days
Pub[lic] hearing 30d	Once a year
Compliance report every 6m	Strategic projects
No	Violations reported only by project proponent / EIAC on govt/reg auth
Community power

FRA Rights:

1. Title — upon title
2. Community — grazing, fishing, IFF [illegible] / MFP [Minor Forest Produce]
3. Relief & Dev — Rehab
4. Forest mgmt. (natural mode)

+ve [Positives of FRA]:

• Reversing historical injustice
• Curbing extremism
• Forest conservation
• Decentralal[isation]

Issues with FRA:

• High rejection of claims
• No awareness
• Diversion of tribal land ("0.33mn ha so far")
• No pol will
• Forest [illegible] piracy
• No capacity of GS / SD

Problems with EIA:

1. Precautionary? Madras HC 2021 struck down pt [point] of clearances in TN
2. [Illegible] bangs / posts
3. Irreversible damage?
4. Against spirit of law
5. Natural justice

#OSOWOG [One Sun One World One Grid]

• OSOWOG:
  • Phase 1 — [illegible]
  • Phase 2 — Africa, SE Asia
  • Phase 3 — [illegible]
• A tool for global cooperation in building a global ecosystem of interconnected renewable energy
• Eg: ↑ eff[iciency] by 1 asset util[isation?]
• Attract investment in renewable energy
• India's leadership role
• Energy for all (SDG-7)
• Seamless flow
• Phase Map [referenced]

Challenges:

• Cyber threats
• Unpredictable supply
• Tech / skills / finance
• Regional politics
• Regulatory hurdles due to multiple jurisdictions
• Sharing of CO₂

#FRA 2006 [detailed provisions]:

1. Preempt road → fall land before [illegible]
2. 2 limit relax
3. Means sl [illegible] to leave forest land to live next to corp[oration]
4. Creation of no-go areas where specific projects would not be allowed
5. Deforestation [illegible] divergence projects non-[illegible]
6. Some by absence projects non-[illegible]
7. Good up [illegible] diverse micro-aggrec[?] project tracking of [illegible] construction of (cost = [illegible])

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#Page 6 — Urban Forestry, Plastics, SUPs [Single Use Plastics], Renewable Energy

#Urban Forestry

• Urban dev[elopment] guidelines 2014 suggest a norm of 10–12 sq [metres?] of open space per person

Importance of Urban Forestry:

• Microclimate & urban heat island effect
• Carbon sequestration
• Bird [habitat]
• Urban hydro cycle
• Check haphazard urban aesthetics
• ↓ stress & mental alertness
• Educ[ation?] — flora & fauna
• Recreation
• Cultural regeneration
• Work oppo[rtunities]
• ↓ energy demand
• ~200 urban forests in India
• Nagar Van Scheme (Waste bin? lf[?]) [initiative]
• Manita Harath [illegible] prog. TL
• Tree city of W. Hyrd[erabad]
• 22/30 most polluted cities in India — Delhi is w/s [worst] most polluted capital city

#PWM [Plastic Waste Management] Amendment Rules, 2021

• Thickness — 35 – wet Sep[tember] 202[illegible], 140 – Dec 2022
• EPR [Extended Producer Responsibility]
• CPCB to monitor
• State & UT Task Force

Challenges with Plastics:

• Easy avail[ability]
• Large consumption
• Oppo[rtunity] by industry
• Infra & tech
• Behavioural Δ [change]
• No RED [no reduction incentive]
• COVID — huge biomed waste

Indonesia — ban ride; @ Korea — Precycling [pre-cycling] — BYO mug bags

#WF [Waste Framework / Waste Management]:

• Most favoured [hierarchy]:
  • Reduce
  • Reuse
  • Recycle
  • Recovery
  • Landfill (least favoured)
• + Circular plastic economy

#Plastics

• 9.46 MT plastic → 60% recycled
• Why ban SUP [Single Use Plastic]?:
  • Not easy to recycle
  • Huge footprint
  • Made from fossil fuels
  • Carcinogenic
  • Leaches into food / drinks
  • Enters food chain
  • Kills animals
  • Pollutes oceans (8mn – IUCN)
  • High energy in prod[uction]

#Renewable Energy — Challenges:

• Land acquisition
• High initial cost
• Skilled labour
• Grid integration
• Tech backwardness [backwardness]
• Intermittent & — power storage & application
• [Segregate — solar, wind … are 5n demand (symbol)] [illegible]

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#Page 7 — EIA Process, Sand Mining, Decarbonising Transport, SEA

#EIA [Environmental Impact Assessment] Process

• EIA process under EIA 2006:
  • Screening → Scoping → Public Hearing → Appraisal
  • Category A — national level
  • Category B — state level:
    • B1 — mandatory
    • B2 — not required
  • [Graph shows]: "WoD [without] project" vs "with EIA" — env[ironmental] status over time — steeper decline without EIA, gentler with EIA

Drawbacks of EIA:

• Several exemptions

• Composition of C[committee?]

• Quality

• Pub[lic] hearing

• Conflict of interest

• No centralised baseline database

• No accreditation of EIA consultants

• [EInv?] supplement plan, 2016?

• 417 NGT cases are about faulty EIA

• ↑ promotes Pay & Pollute over Polluter Pays

#SEA [Strategic Environmental Assessment]

• SEA (Strategic Env[ironmental] Assess[ment]) — a tool to identify SEE [Strategic Environmental Evaluation?] impacts of a project before CM [Construction / decision-making?]

#Sand Mining

• Removal of sand from shore of rivers / lakes

Impact of Sand Mining:

• Coastal erosion
• Coastal floods
• Saline water intrusion
• Aquatic ecosystem
• Loss of barriers against SLR [Sea Level Rise]
• Depletion of GW [groundwater] table
• Agri threatened
• Species — miffer [suffer?] — eg: gharial, olive Ridley [turtle]
• Threat to livelihoods
• Eg: Tuticorin coast, KN [Karnataka?] etc.
• NGT ordered 1000 pins on AP for traction
• Bihar banned sand mining near river bridges recently

Sol [Solution]:

• M-sand [Manufactured sand], CR2 [?] — use fly ash, periodic assessment, surveillance
• Guidelines 2020

#Decarbonising Transport

• NIT [?] 1(47) [reference number]
• 3rd most CO₂ emitting sector
• W/in transport: Road = 90% of total emi[ssions]
• Vehicles on road: need to double by 800mn by 2030
• =51% ↓ Delhi/NCR poll[ution] from vehicular emi[ssions] — CSE

Sustainable Mobility:

• Air poll[ution] ↓
• Health problems ↓
• Make in India
• ↑ innov[ation?]
• ↑ Public transport
• Int[ernational] goals [met]
• Eg: BSV1, FAME, PLUS, MRTS [schemes/standards]
• NITI [Aayog] [TF?] → DT [dedicated transport?] in India project

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#Page 8 — Glaciers, River Sinking, Eutrophication, Desertification, Delhi Pollution, CC Feedback

#Melting of Glaciers

• Melting of glaciers — positive feedback cycle:
  • Melting of sea ice → Exposure of dark water → Absorption of more sunlight → back to melting
  • Melting of sea ice (separate branch — above)

#Eutrophication

• Eutrophication cycle:
  • Excess nutrients [enter water] → algal bloom → decomposers [break down] → O₂ depletion (anoxia) → plant growth → [cycle continues]
  • Diagram shows: algae bloom → decomposers → [algae/plants]

#River Sinking — India Map

• River Sinking [map of India]:
  • Atkim [?] — peninsula / west
  • Cauvery
  • Vargi [?]
• Soil Pollution [map of India]:
  • Palampur — salinity / [symbol]
  • Kanpur — arsenic / [symbol]
  • Bangalore — fertilizers / metals / [symbol]

#Desertification + Delhi Pollution Pie + Population Overshoot

Desertification

• Desertification flowchart:
  • Carbon sequester ↓ → Climate change → Biodiversity loss → Species extinction [cycle]
  • Soil conserv[ation] [link]

Delhi Pollution — Pie Chart (data by CSE)

• 54% — vehicular emission
• 9% — [dust / industry?]
• 8% — bio[mass] burning
• 6% — [crop burning?]
• 1% — other [smaller slices: MH, oil, others]

Climate Change → Resource Wars / Migration / Livelihood Loss

• Climate change flowchart:
  • → sea level rise
  • → food insecurity
  • → Increasing war → migration → livelihoods [affected]
  • → extreme events ↑

Population Overshoot Graph

• Graph shows: carrying capacity (horizontal dashed line) vs pop[ulation]/consumption rising curve — overshoot beyond carrying capacity over time

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#Page 9 — Land Degradation Data, Feedback Loop, Installed Capacity (Renewable Energy), SONATA Map, Panchtatva Principles

#Land Degradation — Bar Chart (2018–19)

• Land degraded [2018–19]:
  • Losses as per TERI — 2.5% [of GDP]
    • 2004–05: 28.7 [₹bn?]
    • 2011–19: 29–32
    • 2018–19: R9–77
  • GDP 2014–15 figures
• Desertif[ication] Atlas — ISRO
• COP14 & UNCCD — Delhi Declaration

#Land Degradation — Feedback Loop Flowchart

• Land Degradation Feedback Loop:
  • Climate change:
    • → wind erosion ↑
    • → water erosion ↑
    • → snowmelt
    • → sea level rise
  • → Land Degradation
    • → change in albedo
    • → release of CO₂
    • → reliance on fertilizers
  • → back to climate change [positive feedback]
• Terrestrial, aquatic, wetland map [annotations on diagram]

#5th GBO [Global Biodiversity Outlook] Report

• 5th GBO Report:
  • 6 "defenses" in 33% [of land?] (last decade)
  • Protect land — 10–15%
  • Protect area:
    • Land = 10–15%
    • Ocean = 7–4% [illegible]

#Installed Capacity — Pie Chart (September 2021)

• Installed Capacity (Sept 2021):
  • Coal: 53%
  • RE [Renewable Energy]: 26%
  • Hydro: 11%
  • Gas: 6%
  • Nuclear: 1%
  • Diesel: ~0%
  • Other: [illegible]%

#India Geothermal Map — SONATA

• India Geothermal SONATA [map]:
  • Him[alayan region] — north
  • West coast
  • Mahanadi
  • Godavari / [Deccan?] — east coast
  • Geothermal energy sites labelled

#Panchtatva Principles of Sustainable Development (NITI [Aayog])

1. Mix of P2, P3, P4 projects
2. Budgetary plan to state optimum public value
3. Create conducive envir[onment] for private participation
4. People participation
5. Development strategy

#Economy–Equity–Environment [Triple-E Venn diagram]

• Economy [circle]
• Equity [circle]
• Environment [circle]
• Centre overlap: X [intersection / balance point]
• → Engagement

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#Page 10 — Climate Change: 9 Tipping Points (World Map), Food Security, CBAM, Green Growth

#Irreversible Changes — 9 Tipping Points

• 9 Tipping Points [on world map]:
  1. Greenland ice melting (north)
  2. Boreal forest (Russia / Canada)
  3. Amazon rainforest (South America)
  4. West Antarctic ice sheet (south-west)
  5. Atlantic circuit[s] / AMOC [Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation]
  6. Coral reef (Aus[tralia] — east)
  7. East Antarctica (Wilkes Basin) (south-east)
  8. Permafrost melting (Siberia / north)
  9. Arctic sea ice (far north)

#Climate Change → Food Security — Flowchart

• Climate Change → Food Security linkage:
  • Extreme weather events & variability in rainfall [input]
  • → ↓ Prod[uction] → Availability
  • → ↑ Prices & Income → Affordability
  • → ↑ Diseases → Absorption
  • → ↑ Disruption → Accessibility
  • All → Food Security

#SDGS — Non Fossil Energy

• 500GW non fossil energy
• SDI energy from renewable
• Increased CO₂ — at COP26 Glasgow:
  • → ↓ carbon emissions by 1bn tonne
  • Net Zero by 2070
  • → ↓ Carbon intensity by 45% by 2030

#CBAM [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism]

• EU supplies → Buys
• Non-EU → Buys
• CBAM [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism]:
  • EU tool to level carbon price on imports
  • Social impact [circle]
  • Green growth [circle]
  • Economic progress [circle]
  • Sustainable food system [outer circle]
• [Venn shows intersection of all three = sustainable food system]

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#Page 11 — Hydropower in Himalayas, Role of Info in DM [Disaster Management], FCA [Forest Conservation Act] Amendment, Damage Types

#Hydropower in Himalayas

• Most projects ≠ HP along Satluj valley even when 4(?) of state is prone to landslides [symbol]

Why [concerns with Himalayan Hydro]?:

• Knowledge gap
• Absence of baseline data
• Geostrategic water war with neighbours
• Co-benefits justify

What to do?:

• SEA [Strategic Environmental Assessment]
• Remove subsidies for hydropower
• TPA [Third Party Assessment?]
• "Eco of the world" [reference]

#Corals — UN Report

• Corals — UN report:
  • 32% threatened
  • Destroyed with no hope for recovery
  • 24% under immediate risk of collapse
  • 26% at risk due to longer-term threats

#Role of Info in DM [Disaster Management]

1. Disaster prevention & planning
2. Local database on land use, demography etc → D [D = planning?]
3. GIS in mapping, creating hazard maps
4. Use by SDMA/DDMA to improve quality of EWS [Early Warning System]
5. Info dissemination
6. Info helps to coord[inate] among diff agencies

During Disaster:

• Info dissemination in local language
• For relief & rescue operations
• Social media to generate resources / agenda setting
• Improves situational awareness
• Help in tackling medical emergency

Post-Disaster:

• For redevelopment plans
• Real time monitoring
• Better targeting
• Assessment of loss
• Creating future strategy

#Risk-Informed Dev[elopment]

• Disaster database
• Disaster governance
• Disaster knowledge network
• Best practices

#26 tonnes of Covid-19 waste a day in India

• 26 tonnes of Covid-19 waste a day in addn to 614 tonnes of BMW [Bio-Medical Waste] produced earlier — CPCB via its BMW App

#FCA [Forest Conservation Act] Amendment

1. Preempt road → fall land before [illegible]
2. 2 limit relax
3. Means sl [sic] to leave forest land to live next to corp[oration]
4. Creation of no-go areas where specific projects would not be allowed
5. [Illegible] divergence projects non-limit
6. Some by absence projects non-[illegible]
7. Good up [illegible] diverse micro-aggre[gation?] project tracking of [cost?] construction

#Damage Types Table

Primary	Secondary	Tertiary
MRFA [?]	Other diseases	PTSD
Lives	Public health exposure	[illegible]

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#Page 12 — Agriculture & Climate Change, Energy Security, Emission Trading, Climate Justice, Urban Waste Mining, Rainbow Deal

#Agriculture & Climate Change — Feedback Cycle

• Agriculture ↔ Climate Change — bidirectional feedback:
  • Rise in temp → Amazon fires / Drought & wildfire → forests release CO₂ → more water in atm → back to rise in temp
  • GHG, chemical use, soil, water, crop management [inputs to agriculture]
  • Agriculture [impacts] → Climate change
  • Climate change [impacts] → rainfall, temp, pests, pollution causing ↓ prod[uction]
  • → CSA [Climate Smart Agriculture] [as response]

#Energy Security — Pyramid / Triangle

• Energy Security pyramid:
  • High demand + High impacts → Environmentally friendly [apex]
  • Equity [middle level]
  • Energy Dilemma [base note]
  • 21st century challenges & critical demands — require a balance with economy
  • Economies of scale (↓ cost) ↔ [illegible] (↑ cost for sustainability)

#Emission Trading

• Emission Trading system:
  • Industry A and Industry B in market
  • Carbon MKT [Market] at centre
  • Allotted emission limit per industry
  • Excess [below limit] → saved / sold
  • A buys [credits], B [sells credits] — based on under/over emission performance
• Gujarat gives [first?] for Surat textile industry in 2019 [illegible symbol]

#Heat Dome — Pacific / Atlantic

• Heat dome — [illegible] pushes air [down?] trapping heat
• Same of all districts — [illegible?] surrounding
• Pacific Ocean — North America — Atlantic Ocean [heat dome map sketch]

#Climate Injustice — Table / Pyramid

Level	Per capita [CO₂ / consumption]	Descriptor
10–7	2 [tonnes?]	Rich
6–6	[illegible]	[illegible]
2–7	middle	3 crore
[lower]	low	[countries?]
CO₂ per capita	low	countries

• Climate Injustice — those who emit least suffer most
• [Pyramid shows rich at top consuming most, poor at bottom emitting least but most affected]

#Urban Waste Mining / E-Waste

• Urban waste mining:
  • E-waste:
    • → Waste to organic — eg mulch, compost → holistic energy (G indices)
    • → Waste to material — eg metals, rubber etc → Rainbow Deal
  • Green Deal [EU] → Rainbow Deal [beyond EU]
  • Rainbow Deal elements:
    • Blue holders
    • Susan (msg?) [illegible]
    • [illegible]
    • Genetic [illegible]

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#Page 1 — Overview, Framework, Challenges, Phases, Institutional Structure

#Vision / Objective

• Vision as per NDMP 2016: to make India Disaster Resilient across all sectors
• NDMA – 2006 (established)
• NDPM – 2009 (Policy)
• NDMP – 2016 (Plan)
• Note top-right corner: "PA pencip in Paper II notes" [reference to related content in Paper II]

#What is Needed? (Reform Agenda)

1. Institutional support of MST [Multi-Stakeholder Teams] for DM (and ARC [Administrative Reforms Commission])
2. Professionalise DM
3. Mass + Social Media involvement
4. CBDM [Community-Based Disaster Management]
5. District DM Plan
6. Include DM in list III [Concurrent List of Constitution]
7. Total Risk Management [TRM]
8. Sustainable Debt
9. Leverage tech + data-driven approaches
10. Inter-agency coord [coordination] as [~1/CA — illegible fraction] & cloud-based [illegible end of line]
11. Agro Forestry

#Challenges (General)

• CC [Climate Change]
• Weak compliance of policies
• Asymmetric impact
• Fund mobilí? – NDMF? [National Disaster Mitigation Fund – query mark in original]
• No specific targets in NDMP
• Infra gaps
• Trained manpower shortage
• Low CBDM [Community-Based Disaster Management]

#India's Vulnerability

• 85%+ of country is vulnerable to single or multiple disasters
  • 58% – seismicity / earthquake-prone
  • 68% – drought
  • 8% – cyclone / 76% of coastline
  • 18% – floods

#New Age Disasters

• Refugee crisis
• Air pollution
• Terrorism
• Communal / religious riots [communal neighbour riots]
• Road accidents
• Pol [Political] crisis → hunger / famine

#Disaster–Debt Relation (→ PA [Public Administration])

• Joad [Joint] Response → NDMF [National Disaster Management Fund]
  • Central: top-down, stay of relief, reactive, outside response, sequence of action, top down
  • Decentralised: quality, proactive, community resilience, parallel series of acts, bottom up

---

#Phases of DM

• Pre-disaster
  • Preparedness
  • Prevention
  • Mitigation [Mitig'n]
• During
  • Evacuation
  • Search & Rescue
  • Basic Needs Provision [prov'n]
• Post
  • Recovery
  • Rehab [Rehabilitation]
  • Reconstruct [Reconstruction]

---

#Disaster Cycle Diagram + Safety / Institutional Culture

• Safety Culture
• BBB [Build Back Better]
• NEC [National Executive Committee] — NCMC [National Crisis Management Committee]
• NDMF [National Disaster Management Fund] — CMG [Crisis Management Group]
• NDRF [National Disaster Response Force]
• 8 NDRF & NDMF [note: 8 battalions of NDRF]
• [Only for R&R] — not yet constituted (−ve) [negative note]

Disaster Cycle (circular arrows):

• Preparedness → Disaster → Response → Recovery → Mitigation → Dev't [Development] → (back to Preparedness)

---

#PPPP for DM (Pyramid) + Joad [Joint] Response Comparison

PPPP for DM pyramid:

• NDMA – PM [Prime Minister at apex]
• SDMA [State Disaster Management Authority] – CM [Chief Minister]
• DDMA [District Disaster Management Authority] – DM [District Magistrate at base]

Joad Response — Central vs Decentralised:

Central	Decentralised
Stay of relief	Quality
Reactive	Proactive
Outside response	Community resilience
Sequence of action	Parallel series of acts
Top down	Bottom up

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#Page 2 — Sendai Framework, Causes, 3R→3P, Perception Management, Frameworks Convergence, NDMA Guidelines

#Opening Points

• "Every dollar spent on Mitig'n [Mitigation] — eg. Jirabs [Jiirabs? — illegible] in ANN survived Tsunami + NE [North East] houses on bamboo stilts saves X dollars on R&R [Relief & Rehabilitation]"
• Sendai – State has primary resp [responsibility] but other actors should share resp — circled (C) [important]

---

#Sendai Framework Targets (Wheel Diagram)

• Sendai Targets (7 spokes of the wheel):
  • Availability & access of multi-hazard EWS [Early Warning Systems] ↑
  • Mortality ↓
  • No. of affected people ↓
  • Economic losses ↓
  • Disaster damage to CII [Critical Infrastructure and Industry] & basic services ↓
  • No. of countries with plans ↑
  • Int'l cooperation ↑ [International cooperation]

---

#Causes of Disasters

• Causes
  • Natural
  • Anthropo [Anthropogenic]
    • Retrofitting
    • Code [Building codes]
    • Land use [planning]
    • Shelters
    • → SoL [Standard of Living / Structure of Life — box highlighted]
  • 2 types of measures:
    • Structural [physical infrastructure]
    • Non Structural
      • Training / education
      • Evacuation [plans]
      • EWS [Early Warning Systems]
      • CBDM ← [arrow emphasis]
• D [Disaster] is a calendar event in I [India] [key statement]

---

#3R Approach → 3P Approach

• 3R approach [old/reactive] → 3P approach [new/proactive]
  • 3R: Rescue, Relief, Rehab [Rehabilitation]
  • 3P: Prevention, Preparedness, Proofing [Disaster-proofing]
• CAG Report 2013 – termed Chennai floods as a man-made disaster
• First Resilience Kerala prog [programme] – Kerala + WB [World Bank] Int'l coop [cooperation] – circled

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#Perception Management (DISASTER Acronym)

Letter	Word	Negative	Positive
D	Damage	Damage	Dev't [Development] oppo [opportunity]
I	Interruption	Interruption	Innovation
S	Severe	Severe	Sharing awareness
A	Antagonise [Antagonistic]	Antagonise	Self sufficiency
S	Scourge	Scourge	Transformation
T	Traumatic	Traumatic	Education
E	Emergency	Emergency	Resilience
R	Risk	Risk	[illegible — cut off]

---

#NDMA Guidelines

• Structural and Non-structural [two pillars of NDMA guidelines]

Observe NOW:

• IMS [Incident Management System]
• Monitoring
• [illegible — likely "Nuisance"/Guidance]
• EWS [Early Warning System]
• Zoning / Mapping [Zoning Mapping]
• Inter-agency coord [coordination]
• Awareness
• Mock drills
• Training & skill dev't [development]
• CBDM

---

#Economic Losses Due to Natural Disasters

• d [losses] = ~2% of GDP
• ~12% of CG [Central Government] Revenue [losses as share of CG revenue]

---

#Venn Diagram: Paris, Sendai, SDG, DRR Convergence

• Three overlapping circles: Paris (Climate) + Sendai (DRR) + SDG [Sustainable Development Goals]
• DRR [Disaster Risk Reduction] — where all three converge (checked/ticked)
• 3भजनांत्र / 3rd Shastri [अर्थशास्त्र — Arthashastra] – devoted a section to famine reduction measures [historical precedent]

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#Page 3 — Cyclones, Cloudbursts, Floods, Droughts, Related Mechanisms

#Cyclones

• eg. Tauktae (AS [Arabian Sea]) & Yaas (BoB [Bay of Bengal])
• 7516 km coastline = 761 prone [districts]
• 10% of India's TC [Tropical Cyclones] affected
• 5–6 TC/year [circled/highlighted — average frequency]
• 84 coastal districts affected

Institutional Mechanisms:

• NCRMP [National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project]
• ICRZ [Integrated Coastal Zone Management]
• NbS → mangrove belt [Nature-based Solutions]
• SATARK – Odisha (BP [Best Practice]) – real-time alerts on diff [different] hazards (minimised casualties during cyclone Fani)

---

#Cloudburst

• eg. UK's [Uttarakhand's] Chamoli, Tehri district
• Process (numbered steps on diagram):
  1. Warm air moves upwards
  2. Large clouds formed
  3. Lack of upper air → no dissipation, concentration ↑
  4. Sudden, localised downpour
  5. Flash floods due to steep slope
• Why ↑? Dev't [Development] projects: CC [Climate Change], GW [Global Warming], concrete?, deforest? [deforestation]
• BP [Best Practice] → Copenhagen CAP [Cloudburst Action Plan — Copenhagen model]

---

#Floods [12:1 ratio box]

• Floods – [12:1] [damage-to-mitigation ratio or frequency ratio]
• eg. Chennai, UK [Uttarakhand], Kerala
• Use Doppler Weather Radar + RWH [Rainwater Harvesting]
• On an avg [average]:
  • 75L ha [lakh hectares] land affected
  • ₹1505 cr [crore] damage
  • 1600 lives [lost per year on average]

Institutional Mechanisms:

• NITI – National Water Model (MIS/DSS [Management Information System / Decision Support System])
• Buoyant Building – Netherlands [model]
• Rain gardens / Sponge city [urban flood mitigation]
• IFLOWS – Mumbai, Chennai [Integrated Flood Warning System]
• Floodways, Manila [example]
• Aapda Mitra (train [trained] comm'l volunteers [community volunteers])

---

#Droughts

• L [Large] 681 area
• 1.5b [1.5 billion] affected so far
• Effect on GDP = ~2–5%
• Deccan region – most severe
• 80% rainfall in ≤100 days [concentration of rainfall]
• 811 area get ≤500 mm rainfall [low rainfall zones]

Mechanisms / Solutions:

• Cloud seeding – Toolbox by UNICF [UNICEF?] / Niti Aayog [Niti Water Budget]; State level Dist [District] Monitoring cells
• Jabalpur (Indore) – White [Whittle?] on property tax for RWH [Rainwater Harvesting]
• [Talviki Shivas? — illegible], MH [Maharashtra] – model
• NFP [National Forest Policy?] village – straight rice + go [?] [illegible end of line]

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#Page 4 — Landslides, Seismic Zones, Forest Fires, Tsunami, International Frameworks, RESILIENT India

#Landslides

• Elements at risk (from landslide): houses, trees, infrastructure
• Landslide effect → debris flow damages elements at base of slope

Statistics:

• MST [Most / Highest] land area
• 30% of WLS [World's Landslides (circled)] in Him [Himalayan] region
• Avg 2 (circled) per sq km in Sikkim & Garhwal regions

Geo Notes / Eq [Earthquake] linkages:

• CDRI, SGD9 [CDRI — Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure; SDG 9] (& others)
• Zero casualty approach [target]
• Disaster Proof cities
• Catastrophe bonds (SL [Sri Lanka?]) [financial instrument]

---

#India Seismic Zone Map

• Eq [Earthquake] — India Seismic Zones:
  • Zone V – Himalayas (highest risk)
  • Zone IV – Delhi
  • Zone III – [central belt]
  • Zone II / III – Western Ghats
• Ekra construction of bamboo in Assam [traditional earthquake-resistant construction]
• Bhangai [Bhungas] in Kutch [Kutch, Gujarat] [traditional circular mud huts — earthquake resilient]
• 811 prone as per FSI [Forest Survey of India] [cross-reference]

---

#Way Forward: RESILIENT India (Acronym)

• R – Risk coverage for all
• E – Enhance local capacity
• S – Social media & ICT
• I – Imbibe [Imbue] DRR | BBB [Disaster Risk Reduction / Build Back Better]
• L – Leadership of community
• I – Int'l collab [International collaboration]
• E – Enhance coop [cooperation] / coord [coordination]
• N – Networking approach
• T – Tech [Technology] to be leveraged

eg. UNESCO–IOC [Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission] recognised 3 communities of Odisha as "Tsunami Ready" — circled [important example]

• Venkataraipur

• Noliasahi

• Folk troops in UP [Uttar Pradesh] for awareness community part [partnership] in Merigaon, Assam

---

#Forest Fires

• 50%+ of UK's [Uttarakhand's] forests
• 59% – grass / shrub [fire-prone type]
• Coniferous (pitchpine) – very prone
• Fire Triangle: Fuel + Oxygen + Heat → Fire
• 211 prone as per FSI [Forest Survey of India]
• NAFFE 2018 Report [National Action Plan on Forest Fires]

---

#Tsunami

• Sagar Vani app [mobile app for sea/ocean alerts]
• ↑ in wave height [waves grow taller as they approach shore — shoaling effect]
• Wave formation → submarine fault movement [trigger mechanism]

---

#International DRR Frameworks: Yokohama → Hyogo → Sendai

• Yokohama (1994) → focus: Relief
• Hyogo (2005–15) → focus: M [Mitigation] E [Education/Enablement] P [Preparedness]
• Sendai (2015–30) → focus: DRR [Disaster Risk Reduction]
• Community part [partnership] in Merigaon, Assam [example]

---

#Hazard + Vulnerable Population = Disaster (Venn Diagram)

• Hazard ∩ Vulnerable pop'n [population] = Disaster [intersection of the two circles]
• In Tehri Dam case, SC [Supreme Court] held that DM [Disaster Management] is a part of R [Right] to Sustainable Dev [Development] — circled [constitutional/judicial precedent, very important]

---

#Summary Tables

#Key Acts / Bodies

Body/Act	Year	Note
NDMA	2006	National Disaster Management Authority
NDPM [NDMP]	2009	National DM Policy
NDMP	2016	National DM Plan
NDRF	—	8 battalions; only for R&R
SATARK	—	Odisha best practice for cyclone alerts
NAFFE	2018	National Action Plan on Forest Fires

#International Frameworks

Framework	Year	Focus
Yokohama	1994	Relief
Hyogo	2005–15	Mitigation, Education, Preparedness
Sendai	2015–30	DRR (Disaster Risk Reduction)

#Sendai Targets (7 Global Targets — 2015–30)

1. Reduce global disaster mortality
2. Reduce no. of affected people
3. Reduce direct economic losses relative to GDP
4. Reduce disaster damage to CII [critical infrastructure] & basic services
5. Increase no. of countries with national/local DRR strategies
6. Enhance international cooperation
7. Increase availability & access to multi-hazard EWS

#Phases of DM

Pre	During	Post
Preparedness	Evacuation	Recovery
Prevention	Search & Rescue	Rehab
Mitigation	Basic needs provision	Reconstruction

#3R → 3P Shift

3R (Old/Reactive)	3P (New/Proactive)
Rescue	Prevention
Relief	Preparedness
Rehabilitation	Proofing / Disaster-proofing

#India Vulnerability Statistics

Hazard	% Vulnerable
Seismicity (earthquake)	58%
Drought	68%
Cyclone	8% (76% of coastline)
Floods	18%
Overall (single or multiple)	85%+

---

#Page 1 — LWE (Left Wing Extremism), Threats Overview, Red Corridor

#Threats: Internal vs External

• Threats categorised into two overlapping circles:
  • Internal threats
  • External threats
  • Overlap zone = threats that are both internal and external in nature

#Issues — NCC DITCH (mnemonic)

• N — [illegible/abbreviation]
• C — Corruption
• C — [illegible]
• D — Disputes
• I — Identity
• T — Terrorism
• C — Communalism
• H — [illegible]

---

#Red Corridor

• Red Corridor = (Tri-junction theory)
  • Map shows affected states in eastern/central India
  • 2021: 85 most affected districts → 70 total (reduced)

---

#LWE Evolution in India — Three Stages

• Stage 1 (1967–75)
  • Naxalbari incident
  • CPI-ML formed
• Stage 2 (1975–2004)
  • People's War Group (PWG) & MCC formed and strengthened in Bihar
• Stage 3 (2004–onwards)
  • CPI-M formed
  • Declared as banned org in 2009

Sub-themes under LWE

• Jai Jangal Zameen movement
• Dev Deficit (development deficit)
• Social Exclusion
• Link between deprivation and LWE
• 6 mukhuyas [six key demands/leaders] (Schemes → SRE [Security Related Expenditure], Roshni, SIS [Special Infrastructure Scheme], 11th Five Year Plan docs), Road Req[uirement] Plan

---

#Bell Curve of Insurgency + LWE Fatalities

• Bell curve of insurgency:
  • Initial rise but will eventually go on realising that state is too powerful to be defeated
  • States are too powerful to absolutely [defeat insurgencies]
• LWE Related Deaths/Fatalities — MHA data:
  • Bar chart showing decline:
    • ~408 (2009)
    • 310 (2011)
    • 288 (2012)
    • 183 (2014)
    • 665 (2020/2021 — spike)
  • Trend: overall decline with occasional spikes
• Notable incidents:
  • eg: Gadchiroli land mine blast, 2019 → killed 15 policemen
  • Issues: neglect of SOP, leadership of IAS, obligation of MHA, guerrilla warfare of LWE, intelligence tech, funds laundering

---

#Multi-Pronged Strategy (against LWE)

• Schemes → SRE, Roshni, SIS (11th FYP docs), Road Req[uirement] Plan
• Agencies:
  • Greyhounds — AP
  • Sandesh Bihar → pact in PRI elections — 6 mukhuyas [priorities]
  • WHAM [Winning Hearts And Minds], Brain force over battalion force
• "Trust emanating from dev[elopment] can check extremism of any kind." — PM Modi
• Multi-pronged strategy diagram (concentric circles):
  • Core: STANDBY CORE [development]
  • Ring 1: Effective SRM (Security-Related Measures)
  • Ring 2: psychological [approach]
  • Outer: Bullet for bullet for hardcore [cadres]

---

#Page 2 — North East India, J&K, Counter Insurgency Strategy

#North East

• 8% area, 4% population of India
• Land surplus, resource rich
• BUT governance deficit
• 5800 km border with 5 countries

• NE Map shows: Mizoram, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh

Reasons → HIDE PALM GG (mnemonic)

• H — History
• I — [illegible]
• D — Drugs
• E — Ethnicity
• P — Pol[itical]
• A — Appsa [Aspirations?]
• L — Leadership
• M — Migration
• G — Greed
• G — [illegible]

Initiatives (for NE)

• BADR, NITI NE Forum, HADP [Holistic Agriculture Development Programme], MDONER [Ministry of Development of NE Region], NE BIZ Summit
• G7SCH, NESIDS, NE RLP, NE Industrial Innovation & Promotion Policy 2007, 10 Point Plan
• Budget earmarked
• KMT, BCIM, IMT (30 lWT [lakh workers?])
• Operation Sunrise (Myanmar)
• SC in Sonowal case held that illegal migration is an act of aggression

Types of Migrants

• Both Mixed & Mass type:
  • Refugees → Job seekers → Anti-social → Suicidal → humanitarian
• Beze-Barian [Bezbaruan?] Committee for NE

---

#J&K

• "Kashmir can be won not by power of sword but by power of appeal [love]" — Kalhana, Rajatarangini (circled as important quote)

• J&K Venn (3 circles):
  • Pak's religious national [identity]
  • India's secular rational [identity]
  • Kashmiriyat — intersection of both
  • Identity crisis leading to:
    • Radicalism
    • Fundamentalism
    • Existential threat

Factors → More or less HIDE PALM

• Initiatives: UDAAN, PM Dev[elopment] Package, Project Himayat, Sadbhavana Yojana, Nai Rozgar Scheme, SEHAT Policy

---

#Counter Insurgency Strategy

• Two approaches:
  • Conventional / Military or enemy-centric approach (X) [not preferred]
  • People-Centric / Developmental approach (WHAM) (✓) [preferred]
• "Road to New India should run through North East India"

---

#Tribal Strategy (NE)

• Triangle diagram:

  • Top: [Government]
  • Left: 7th Schedule (SCS) — Tribal people
  • Right: Rule of law / sunrise [commerce?]
  • Bottom: Risk of fence [ing?]
  • Centre: Tribal strategy

• Approach:

  • Forms a game → alles [allies?] status quo to overthrow govt
  • Non-violent eco obj — invisible
  • Violent pol obj — visible → take resp of attack
  • 3d> (3-dimensional approach)
  • Lone wolf also
  • OC are structured hierarchically so difficult to get on top

• Bodo peace accord 2020

• "Conflict is: forms a game → alles status quo to overthrow govt"

  • Non-violent eco obj [invisible]
  • Violent pol obj: visible → take resp of attack
  • 3d>: lone wolf also

• Blog: Amitabh Mattoo — 4D Approach: Dialogue, Devol [Devolution], Demility [Demilitarisation], Devt [Development]

---

#Page 3 — Terrorism, External Actors, Use of Technology

#Kashmir/Afghanistan/FATA Map

• Map shows: AFGHAN, CHINA, Pak, J&K, Ladakh, Shaksgam Valley, Aksai Chin, (Tibet), Siachen
• Red Corridor shown with hatching

#Terrorism — Definition

• Terrorism = Systematic use of violence to achieve political/religious/ideological purpose
• Lowest fatalities in 2019 — 681

LWE Fatalities Bar Chart

• Bar chart:
  • 2018: 94 deaths
  • 2019: 75 deaths (reduced)
  • Violence graph: ahead [trend line going down]

---

#Issues — ABCDE Framework (for Terrorism)

• A — tech fatigue
• B — eroding final system [erosion of rule of law]
• C — Money laundering
• D — Crime-pol [political] nexus
• E — Low HR [Human Resources]
• + Corruption
• + Implement deficit

Steps to counter terrorism

• Mountain Bangladesh on FICN [Fake Indian Currency Notes], FATF listing, TFFC [Terror Financing and Financial Crimes] cell banning crypto to devices?
• Initiatives / Institutional

---

#Key Legislation & Institutions

• MAC [Multi Agency Centre], NATGRID, NIA, UAPA 1967 (amended)
• Christchurch Call to Action
• Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT) — 2017 by [Facebook/Meta]
• Global Counter (Terrorism) Forum — 8 [member countries]
• Tagma process → UN
• Nogata process → UN

---

#Use of Technology BY Terrorists

• Propaganda
• Recruit & Radicalise
• Financing
• Training
• Plan / coord / executing
• Cyber Radicalism

---

#Use of Technology TO Counter Terrorism

• Intelligence gathering
• Surveillance
• Counter narrative
• Intl coop [International cooperation]
• Christchurch Call → [tech] govt [collaboration]

---

#External & Non-State Actors Diagram

• External actors (2016):
  • JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed] (2016)
  • Hizbul (ML [Mujahideen]) (2016)
  • Raniya (2016)
  • Farsi (2016)
  • Kasid (2016)
• Non-state actors:
  • Dahankar (IM [Indian Mujahideen]) (2016)
  • Ranyana [?] Farsi (2016)
• Linkages → Hawala, Donation, Counterfeit, Crypto, Illegal training
• Activities → Extortion, Smuggling, Looting, State sponsor, Drug trafficking, Human [trafficking]

---

#CCIT — Proposed by India in 1986 (UNGA)

• Universal def[inition]
• Criminalise for [terrorism]
• Legal oblig[ation]
• CBT [Capacity Building for Counter-Terrorism] as extraditable offence
• BRIC Counter, Tracker strategy
• SCO-RATS

---

#Challenges Faced by India in Countering Terrorism

• Geog[raphy] of India
• Hostile neighbours
• "Best way to prevent is to prepare" [circled]

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#Page 4 — Organised Crime (OC), OC–Terrorism Nexus, Cybersecurity

#Organised Crime (OC) — Definition

• As per UNTOC → 3 or more persons form a group to obtain some material benefit through illegal act
• Global problem → global response → collaborative approach

---

#OC–Terrorism Nexus

• On 3 levels — co-existence / cooperation / convergence
• Common enemy = State

Financing Links (OC → Terrorism):

1. Financing → eg: extortion in NE
2. Narco [drug trafficking linkages]
3. Funding through ML [Money Laundering]
4. Human trafficking etc → Boko Haram

• eg: Bombay blast (1993) & D Company

---

#OC–Terrorism Nexus Diagrams

• Triple Venn (overlapping circles):
  • Drug (top-left)
  • Terror (top-right)
  • Human trade (bottom)
  • Convergence at centre
  • Note: "No RISHE [risk?]" at bottom / "Convergence"

• Flowchart (becomes more terrorist):
  • OC → Alliance with terror org
  • → Use of [terror] tactics for operational purposes
  • → BLACK HOLE SYNDROME
  • → Criminal activity for [revenue] financing
  • → Alliance with criminal org
  • → Terrorists (bottom)

---

#OC Characteristics

• Forms a game: alles [allies] status quo to overthrow govt
  • Non-violent eco obj — invisible
  • Violent pol obj — visible → take resp of attack
• 3d> lone wolf also
• OC are structured hierarchically so difficult to get on top

---

#Drug/Terror/Human trafficking — No RISHE / Convergence

• Two circles: Drugs + Terror / Human trade → convergence at centre

---

#Cybersecurity — Layered Defence

• Layered defence (like concentric arches/rainbow):
  • Outer: Firewalls, air gapping, demilitarised zones, to mgmt
  • Next: Antivirus patching
  • Next: Network Applications File & Data
  • Inner rings: secure coding, encrypt, rights mgmt
• Cybersecurity = layered defence

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#Page 5 — Money Laundering, Technology & National Security, Social Media, Black Money

#Money Laundering

• Definition: Making illegal money look legitimate
• Three stages:

Stage	Description
Placement	Introducing illegal money into financial system
Layering	Complex transactions to hide trail
Integration	Bringing laundered money back as apparently legitimate

Techniques

• Hawala, 3rd party cheques
• Photos, casinos, cybercrime
• Hedge funds, cryptocurrency
• Structuring deposits (small deposits in many a/cs), shell co[mpanies]

Key Fact

• ML = 2–5% of World GDP is laundered annually

3F → Response:

• Freezing
• Confiscation [Freezing]
• Forfeiting

Statutory / Bilateral / International Framework

Level	Instrument
Statutory	PMLA 2002, FEMA 1999, NDPSA 1985
Bilateral	ED, FIU
International	FATF, Vienna Conv[ention], Basel Eff[ective Measures], Egmont Group, IOSCO

---

#Technology & National Security

Facilitators

• Evidence collect[ion]
• Intelligence gathering
• Surveillance — drones / radar
• Reconnaissance
• Collab — NATGRID
• Nano tech — camera / sensor / micro weapons
• AI — computation, robots in Siachen

Challenges

• Cyber crimes
• Piracy
• ToC [Transnational Organised Crime] — dark web
• Crypto & terror finance
• Radical [content online]
• 3D printed guns
• Hybrid warfare

---

#Social Media

+ve	-ve
Ease of comm[unication] / awareness	Fake news
Actionable input	Privacy breach
L&O [Law & Order] maintenance	Polar[isation]
Online FIR	Radical content
Intelligence & surveillance	Cyber bullying
—	Insurance [Internet] fraud
—	Comm[unity] outreach [misuse]

Examples (negative):

• NZ terror attack — live on Facebook (c41 [case?])
• Rumours of child kidnapping → mob lynching in Jharkhand
• Morphed videos → riots in Muzaffarnagar, 2013

Policy Response

• Natl Social Media policy
• Digital literacy

---

#Black Money

• If money breaks land in its origin/move/use & is not reported for tax purposes
• From mines/corruption/biz

• Venn: Detect / BM [Black Money] / Prevent → Respond [at intersection]
• Lack of:
  • Challenges — tech (AI/Big data), HR, tax evasion, smuggling, global I [intelligence] efforts, enforcement agencies coordination

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#Page 6 — Cybersecurity (Detailed), Cyber Crime, Budapest Convention

#Cyber Security — Definition

• Acc to ITACT 8000 — protecting info/equipment/device from unauthorised access/use/modify/destroy

• Cybercrime against women → Cyber stalking, Defamation, Morphing pics, Pornography

• Cyby [Cyber] crimes (NCRB) = #10

• Cyber warfare = when state uses internet-based [invisible] force to sabotage or espionage [against] another

Diff from Traditional war:

• Independent theatre of war
• Borderless
• Contactless
• Ease of location
• Multidimensional impact
• Disguised attack

Examples:

• Estonia (2007), Georgia (2003)
• CERT-In cyber attack by [countries] → [illegible]
• Kudankulam plant — 269 [attacked]
• UBI Helst [?]
• Data theft at Zomato (2013)
• wannacry → region stacker → social media ac → Mumbai hack → Pakistan
• SCI & SH [?]

---

#Meera Hemachandra — Cybercrime Statistics

• Bar chart (NCRB cybercrime cases):
  • 2015: ~49K
  • 2018: ~808K [?]
  • 2019: ~1158K [?] — Source: 10K Sikha [?]
  • Steep upward trend

---

#Pol Gapping — Isolate CII from Internet

Challenges:

1. Data colon [control?]
2. Import dependency & 4.0 architecture [in local infra]
3. HR
4. Digital illiteracy
5. Under reporting
6. 4.0 coord [co-ordination]

---

#Budapest Convention

• Aka Convention of Council of Europe — only binding instrument — UK & US are members
• India not signed:
  • Disputes with ~90 countries
  • Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs)
  • In conflict: it allows access to investigate [company?]
  • Some provisions: override IT Copyright Act
  • Framed in 2001 — new and so new law is needed

---

#Cybersecurity Legal Framework

Level	Instrument
Legal	IT Act, NCS policy (2013), Natl DIG comm, Policy (2018), ESIM policy
Bilateral	CERT-In (Natl [National?]), NCCC, Cyber Kendra
International	Budapest Convention, India–US Cyber Partnership Plan (2011??)

• Cyber & ACT Combo org in India in 2017 → Cyber Diplomacy
• US-India Cyber Kinship Plan

---

#US Dept of Defence — 4 Stages of Cyber Attack

• Reconnaissance → Attack → Expansion → Obfuscation [Exfiltration?]

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#Page 7 — Security Challenges (Mind Map), Coastal Security, Border Security

#Security Challenges — Mind Map

• SC [Security Challenges]:
  • External State actors:
    • China: String of pearls, border standoff, [illegible] Marine security
    • Pak: JK insurgency, CBT [Cross Border Terrorism], smuggling
    • Bangladesh: Illegal migration, trafficking, illegal cattle [trade]
    • Nepal: Border intrusion, drugs
    • Myanmar: Illegal migration, trafficking [Drug trafficking through Golden Triangle?]
  • Non-State actors:
    • NGOs, Religious orgs
    • MNCs
    • Drug cartels
    • Armed groups: Al Qaeda, ISIS, IM, MAOIST
  • LWE, Internal, JK&E (J&K extremism), Hinterland
  • LOC

Security challenges — Golden Triangle (drug routes)

• Drug routes: Golden Triangle area (Myanmar/Thailand/Laos)
• Coastal Terrorism — via piracy
• Drugs → Golden [?]
• Illegal migration
• Cattle [trade]
• Insurgency

---

#Coastal Security — 3-Layered

• 3 Layers:
  • High seas — by Navy
  • EEZ [Exclusive Economic Zone] by [Coast Guard]
  • Land–sea interface — by Coastal Police
• CS Scheme (2005–06)
• 73 coastal police stations

Need for PTT CID:

• Pop[ulation] — VS + 3 metro cities
• Terror (2008) [26/11 Mumbai attacks reference]
• Trade
• China factor
• Infra safety
• Disputes (sir creek)

---

#Border Security — India Map

• Map shows: Punjab borders, LOC, UP Border, Bihar Border, Delhi (central), Pak (left), Bangla[desh], WB [West Bengal] Borders
• FICN/Drugs through these 5 borders
• Bodo peace accord 2020 [noted]
• Road to New India should run through North East India

---

#Initiatives (Coastal Security)

• Ex like Sea Vigil
• Sagar Kavach (boxed)
• Sagar Prahari Bal (boxed)
• Sagar Suraksha Dal (Information Bal)
• Integrated by fishermen: I-cards [identity cards for fishermen]
• CSS (2005) [Coastal Security Scheme]
• IMAC (boxed), IFC-IOR [Information Fusion Centre — Indian Ocean Region]
• JOC on AAN [?] + Maritime Theatre Command
• Upgrade infra + procedures
• Inst[itutionalise] AS mgmt [Automatic Station management]
• Regulate drones
• Air traffic control
• Weapon system & interceptors
• Air Defence Identif[ication] Zones (ADIZ)

---

#Air Security

• Air sov[ereignty] by Paris Convention (1919) + ICAO + Chicago Convention
• eg: Purulia armsdrop case
• Flexible use of airspace

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#Page 8 — Border Issues (Detailed — Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, China, Myanmar)

#Border Issues — 15000 kms total

Bangladesh — 4096 km (by Radcliffe [line])

• Illegal migration
• Cattle smuggling (₹1000 cr revenue loss) & other essential items
• eg: Sandesh Sunder [?]
• FICN
• Human & narcotics
• Kidnapping & thefts
• Water disputes
• Integrated check posts, fencing & floodlighting border/trade, border outposts, LBA 2015, 2016 bound crime free stretch

Nepal — ~1751 km

• Forceful grabbing of land
• Open borders exploited by terrorists & escape of criminals
• Smuggling → FICN
• Gun running
• Human [trafficking]
• Maoist support
• Bodo-Biku Border Coord. Centre → Intelligence section to SSB

Bhutan — ~669 km

• Smuggling of Bhutanese cannabis
• Insurgent camps uprooted
• BADP = OBOF [One Border One Force] under CIBMS:
  • Microwave communication
  • OFC [Optical Fibre Cable]
  • Digital Mobile Radio

Pakistan — 3323 km

• 4 sub-borders (Radcliffe)
• LOC
• AGPL [Actual Ground Position Line]
• Drug trafficking (heroin in PB [Punjab])
• Pushes terrorists to side
• Ceasefire violation
• River water sharing
• AFSMT [?], Smart fence, CIBMS [Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System]

China — 3488 km

• Water sharing
• Border disputes
• Large-scale smuggling of Chinese electronics & other consumer goods
• [illegible] bonds
• Banni Bulle [?], India–China [?]
• Spy Cam Project
• China [illegible]

Myanmar — 1643 km

• Insurgency
• Drugs
• Pole tagna [?]
• 13 new ids [IDS points?]
• No physical barrier along border

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#Way Out (SECURITYY mnemonic)

• S — Security forces (OBOF)
• E — Eco areas of border areas
• C — Coop & Joint op[erations]
• U — Upgraded surveillance
• R — Regional Intel[ligence] & Info chain
• I — [illegible]
• T — Trading points / tech
• Y — Youth engagement
• Y — [second Y — illegible]

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#CIBMS [Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System]

• Madhan Gaikwad Committee
• Madhvan Gupta Committee → CIBMS
• MSPA → PA notes (MHA standard protocol to police authorities)

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#Pathankot Attack (2015)

• During [Uri/Pathankot] attack (2015), terrorists entered into India through route used by drug traffickers

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#Page 9 — UAPA, NIA, Drones, Bodo Peace Accord

#UAPA — Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act

• MMA — 7→ On no. of cases (2015–19)?
• UAPA Amendments:

Year	Key Provisions
2004	Scope of 'terrorist' fund, extent of interest
2008	Eco security, [illegible] add, [?]
2019	Include 4 [provision], Requirement, Approval of DG, NIA (Gaz.), DIG [or] Police
—	Suspension in ⅔ NIA, can control

• Concerns:
  • Unlawful act?
  • No [due process]
  • Risk for [?]
  • [illegible]
• Judicial review:
  • → Vague undefined
  • → Discretionary powers
  • → FR [Fundamental Rights] — 14, 19, 21 (no change [?])
  • → Incommunicado [detention?]
  • → Poli[tical] misuse
  • → [illegible] consultation
• TADA: 1987–2004
• POTA: 2002–04 → 2R [?] consultation

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#Final Solution? (J&K / Insurgency)

• Stakeholders → Board [?]
• Rect[ification of] Homeland [?] build
• Dev[elopment] of Social cap[ital]
• Transform[ation of] state and aid [civilian?]
• L&O [Law & Order] mandate
• → Sharing of lang[uage] & culture
• Problems still remain:
  • ↑ to identify
  • Underperception
  • Tenderness
  • Some factions not [integrated]

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#NIA — National Investigation Agency

• NIA 2019 Amendment:
  • Expand powers to [investigate] explosive substances/Act, NPA [?], Cyber [crimes], Human [trafficking?]
  • Individual?
  • Overruled [?]
  • In session courts as spl c [special court]

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#Drones

• UA [Unmanned Aircraft] — to operate w/o pilot
• Types: Remotely piloted, Auto remain[?], Model storage [?]

Applications — FAT MUD H3 (mnemonic)

1. F — Agri — crop monitoring, soil health, resource util[isation]
2. A — Forests — wildlife control, HVAC [?], protection (fire alerts)
3. T — Urban dev — clay survey, planning, surveying/monitoring — gardening [planning?]
4. M — Healthcare — epidemics control, cleaning & hygiene, quarantine enforcement
5. U — Traffic mgmt — road monitoring, traffic feedback, survey
6. D — Security — Real-time surveillance, security plan, map [infrastructure sites?]
7. H3 — DM [Disaster Management] — search & rescue, Delivery, Real-time surveillance, hazard zoning
8. — Mining — scouting [illegal], mapping

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#Bodo Peace Accord — Features

• Bodo Peace Accord
• Disputes: Assam — Bodo
• → New dawn of peace, harmony & togetherness to Assam

Features:

• BTC: [Bodoland Territorial Council] → BTC [now]
• In [the] villages with Bodo pop[ulation] outside BTC
• 4 Lok Sabha [seats — reservations]
• Scheduled — [representation in?] Scheduled Acts [legislation?]
• Board lang[uages] (Bodo) → Bodo as official lang[uage]
• Bodo Kacheri official lang[uage] Council

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#Page 10 — Drones (contd.), Piracy in IOR, Bioterrorism, Integrated Theatre Command

#Drones — But (Challenges/Concerns)

1. Policy gaps
2. Imports
3. Privacy
4. Dual use tech
5. Adds to traffic mgmt problems
6. ↑ security threats — eg: used to drop weapons near IB border
7. Surveillance
8. Low flying — diff to detect
9. Cheaper/smaller than conventional weapons

Anti-Drone System of DRDO

• IAF is procuring counter-UA system
• Drone Rule 2021
• Airspace map:
  • Green (allowed)
  • Yellow (restricted)
  • Red (no-fly)
• Anti-drone tech against rogue drones like:
  • Radio jammers
  • GPS spoofing
  • Net guns
  • EM [ElectroMagnetic] pulse etc.

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#Early Threat Detection Flowchart

• Early threat detection + Appropriate mix of measures → Effective Deterrence

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#Piracy in IOR (Indian Ocean Region)

• Map shows choke points:
  • Hormuz (top right)
  • Bab el-Mandeb (centre)
  • Malacca [Strait]
  • Mozambique
  • SIOC → Choke points (circled)
• India as Observer [in maritime security fora?]

Why Piracy?

• Rich pickings at sea
• Pol instability
• 4.0 enforcement
• Poverty

Implications:

• (-) Trade hindrance
• Petro piracy
• (+) High Risk Area ↓
• (-) US not satisfied UNCLOS
• Anti-piracy patrols
• SHADE (Global Coop[eration])
• AUs Lome Charter
• BP → Puntland State, Somalia [piracy base]

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#Integrated Theatre Command (ITC)

• = Unified command of 3 services under a single commander based on geography
• → By Kargil Review & Shekatkar Committee

ITC Branches:

• Northern, Western, Eastern, Air, Maritime, Logistics Defence
• Steered by CDS [Chief of Defence Staff]
• Already in US, China, Russia etc.

Need:

• Resource eff[iciency] ↑
• Challenging warfare
• Procurement [better]
• Quick DM [Decision Making]
• Coord[inated] response
• Growing threats

Challenges:

• Geo stretch is not large enough
• Inter-service friction (opposed by IAF)
• Ltd [Limited] domain knowledge
• Operational hurdles
• Financial considerations

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#Bioterrorism

Need (why it matters for India):

• India's high vulnerability [to bio threats]
• Impact on society
• ↑ in attacks due to tech advancement
• New arena of warfare

Agents:

• Cat A → Quick transm[ission] → Anthrax
• B → Giardin [Giardia?]
• C → Engd[ineered] pathogens → Nipah etc.

HOW to counter?

• Deterrence by [law]
• Prevention
• Investigation
• Surveillance & assessment
• Labs ↑
• Medical mgmt
• Public sensitisation

Natl [National] Efforts:

Instrument	Notes
EPA 1897	Epidemic Diseases Act
NDMA	National Disaster Management Authority
IDSP	Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme
Intl Health Regulations	—

International:

• Bioweapons Conv[ention]
• Interpol
• Cartagena [Protocol]